Glibertarians.com 2018 Archive

Category: Advice

  • This is what Astrology Looks Like: The Horoscope for the week of November 11

    So many times, the sky is empty.  The planets scattered, filling the silent halls with mumbling irrelevancies.

     

    This week is not one of those weeks.

     

    This week’s chart could be used as a final examination in a mid-level class on data analysis, should The Royal Science ever regain its place in the halls of academia.  Which it really should.  What with the push to “decolonize” the sciences, there’s probably a future in teaching astrology as an epistemology of color.   I’d need to apply for the professorship in sandface of course, but it should be fairly easy to tar anyone who insisted that I was a Norway Brown as a “cisracist.”  I should probably get some publications under my belt; anyone got the contact information for the Sokal Squared people?

    To do this chart correctly, I should send the files to the plotter, reserve one of the larger conference rooms and “borrow” one of the straightedges from the AMHS people.  However, this year’s performance management reviews haven’t been completed, so I won’t do that.  Here’s what you get with a ruler and an eyeball:

    The anchor of this whole thing is the alignment of Terra-Luna-Saturn; “Great Ending” (great as in ‘big,’ not as in ‘nifty.’ ) There’s a related-but-not-really influence there from Mercury (news, tidings, impetus) that might officially be pushing on the trio through the Earth, but in actuality is more like a “dotted line” boss who is stationed in a different office.    Where Mercury does come into play is that drawing a line through Mercury and Saturn (the signs of beginning and endings, respectively) that line also intersects Venus(retrograde).  This yields “Love Turns to Hate” but in really big Gothic lettering maybe with some teenaged notebook art from a Neil Gaiman fangirl decorating it.

    Uugh, what is it with Venus retrograde? I can't even.
    Something like this

    Now modifying all of that is another linked alignment indicating relationship troubles (Venus(retrograde)-Mars-Luna) just in case the lettering wasn’t enough.  Think of it as a sidereal blink tag, if you will.  And, and ANNNNDDD there is yet another linked alignment of Venus(retrograde)-Jupiter-Sol that I usually have most success translating as “makeup sex,” but what the manual will tell you means “unexpected pregnancy.”

    Got all that?  Maybe this would help.

    Astrology uses the same proven PowerPoint technology as the US Military. SCIENCE!
    Gray lines are links through Saturn, Red through Venus(retrograde) and blue through the Moon

    Now for further clarification on this situation, three of the planets involved in this (including two of the linking ones) are all conjoined in Sagittarius.  The Archer is one of the two signs having major associations with the penis (the other being The Bull, natch’)  So you can go back through all the stellar relationships and every time you see “Jupiter,” “Mercury,” or “The Moon,” you can substitute in “Penis.”  Why is there relationship trouble?  Because Venus(retrograde), Mars, and Penis.

    Scorpio still holds the Sun, but all the other planets (and most of the readers) are bored with it.

    Libra is still holding Venus(retrograde) in check.  Libra really doesn’t get enough appreciation.

    Sagittarius is where all the fun is at this week:  Mercury, Luna and Jupiter means triple good luck to anyone engaging in precision work, riding/driving vehicles and/or searching for boytaur porn.

  • I Love to sleep: the Horoscope for the week of Nov 4

    This week starts off really well by giving me an extra hour of sleeping, though in reality the whole idea that the gubbmint can dictate what time it is seems like one of those Canute-levels of arrogance that is unfortunately too common among the priestly caste.

    The big news is Venus(retrograde) being her bitchy self, but the rest of the sky working to keep her contained.  Specifically:

    She’s in alignment, but with the Sun (which is directly opposed to the anti-libido of V(r) and with the moon (which diffuses and deflects her retrograde effects).  Even better, in opposition to that alignment is Mercury (signifying oppositional/negatory change) and Mars (which is the counterpart to Venus and so puts the kibosh on the retrograde aspects.)  Furthermore, Venus(retrograde) is trying to pull her crap while being in Libra.  Libra, being the scales of justice, is having none of this backward-ass motion shit.    Venus(retrograde) is a terrible sign, but with everything else going on this week, she can just go pound sand.

    I know 11/12ths of you are getting irritated at all the attention that the universe is giving Scorpio, so I’ll get it out of the way first.  Congratulations on surviving your dry spell.  With Venus(retrograde) moving off into Libra, your home life should begin improving immediately.  And I do mean home life — having the moon conjoined with Jupiter indicates that any problem you are having with extramarital partners will lag behind your spouse resolution-wise.

    We’ve already talked about Libra having to play host to Venus(retrograde).  Ordinarily, this would be bad, but as mentioned above, all the celestial censors are doing their part to shield you.  So good news!  Your week isn’t going to suck as the primary signs would indicate!

    Aquarius still has to deal with Mars for another couple of weeks or so.  Expect less belligerence starting about Nov 15.

    Saturn in Capricorn is good for achieving your Glibfit goals.  Start making room in your waistband for Thanksgiving dinner now.

    Mercury in Sagittarius is an auspicious time for hunting.  Also, this indicates that I’ll finally be able to get my father’s pistol out of gun-jail.  About fucking time.

  • BakedPenguin’s NFL Pick-’em for Week 9

    I went 9-5 last week, for a nice change from mediocracy.

    If anyone wants to know, I got my odds here, on 10/31.

     

    Here are this week’s picks:

    Oakland (+120) at San Francisco (-3 / -140). Two teams with bad records who both have a few close losses. The 49ers injury situation looks worse than the Raiders, however. OAK – take the points.

    Detroit (+185) at Minnesota (-5 / -220). Two tricky teams to pick. Minnesota seems slightly better, and they’re at home (even if that’s meant jack & shit this year to either team). MIN – give the points.

    Kansas City (-9 / -450) at Cleveland (+350). An improved Browns team has the ability to hold the Chiefs under that point spread, but then I also thought that last week against the Steelers, who were able to take advantage of some holes in Cleveland’s defense. The Browns had 2 interceptions against Tampa Bay, and still lost. And I don’t think Mahomes is going to throw 2 interceptions.

    Pittsburgh (+130) at Baltimore (-3 / -150). This is a tough one. One key to the game will be how well the Ravens tough pass defense matches up against Roethlisberger and the Steelers pass offense & vice versa. Pittsburgh has shown themselves to be a good road team this year, but I think Baltimore has enough to pull out a 3-point win. BAL – give the points.

    Tampa Bay (+250) at Carolina (-6.5 / -300). With either Fitzpatrick (who has historic interception problems of his own) or Winston, the Buccaneers have a definite QB disadvantage to Newton and the Panthers. With the spread under a TD, I’d go with Carolina. CAR – give the points.

    NY Jets (+140) at Miami (-3 / -160). Another tough one. Miami has a record that their stats don’t seem to support. I’m guessing that a lot of that is due to turnovers, and they will be key if the Dolphins want to win. So at home, against a mediocre team. MIA – give the points.

    Atlanta (+105) at Washington (-1.5 / -125). The Redskins are the better team, and the spread is basically a pick ‘em game. I wouldn’t bet the house, but I also wouldn’t have a problem putting three figures down on this one. WAS – give the points.

    Chicago (-10 / -500) at Buffalo (+400). Chicago has shown a talent for throwing away games this year, but the Bills terrible offense and their resultantly overstretched defense gives the Bears a good chance to meet that large point spread. CHI – give the points.

    Houston (± 100) at Denver (-1 / -120). Houston has reeled off a string of 5 straight wins, but they are mostly against teams ranging from mediocre to bad. While the Broncos fit in the top end of that description, they are also a team with a definite home advantage. (Their two home losses this year were against KC & the LA Rams).  I think Denver has a decent chance of stopping the Texans’ streak. DEN – give the point.

    LA Chargers (+105) at Seattle (-1.5 / -125). Tough one. The Chargers have a good team this year, and Seattle has had some close calls against some weak teams. LAC – take the points.

    LA Rams (+105) at New Orleans (-1.5 / -125). Another hard to call game. I’d like to take the Saints at home, and they’re certainly capable of it, but their weaker defense makes me think the Rams do have an advantage. LAR – take the points.

    Green Bay (+200) at New England (-6 / -240). The Packers are not the Bills, so that point spread strikes me as a bit high. GB – take the points.

    Tennessee (+230) at Dallas (-6 / -270). If the Cowboys can get its’ offense going, I doubt the Titans will be able to keep up. (Tennessee is just above Buffalo in points scored). I think a 6-point spread is about right. DAL – give the points.

  • Talk to the cops? Are you crazy? (part one of a multi-part series)

     
     

    I have the glory and honor of appearing on a few court-appointed lists in the area. This means I represent clients for misdemeanor, felony, and child protective/ delinquency cases. And I really don’t mind doing this kind of work. Strangely enough, going to law school really prepared me well for doing this kind of work. Go figure. Although it wasn’t taking the required criminal law classes that prepped me, it was the overall structure of the classes.

    One of the perks of my job is that I get to read a lot of police reports, and talk to police officers and detectives a lot. The reason why I say this is a “perk” is that it makes me look at the arguments law enforcement would use if the case goes to trial, and how police psychology works. It’s actually quite underhanded and manipulative once you break it down into its pieces.

    Sometimes, and it has happened more recently thanks to getting on those court-appointed lists, I have potential (retained!) clients call me with the following scenario: “I was at a party last weekend, with a lot of friends. My friends tell me that Tom says that I committed a crime against him, and that he called the cops. Should I talk to the cops?”

    My advice is always “No, you have no obligation to talk to the cops.” And then I tell the potential client, “if the cops call you, tell them you won’t be questioned without your lawyer present.”

    1. The format: Police reports are written in a good guy/ bad guy format. It’s like a play. Usually –and I can’t think of a time I have seen it any other way — the person who calls the cops is the “good” guy. Once the cops identify the rest of the players in the play, they will try to finger one person  (or possibly a group of people, who end up as co-defendants) as the “bad guy.”

    This is the beginning of how the mind set of law enforcement works. It’s easier to sell the story to a jury if the play is simple. Good guy / bad guy is a scenario we have all seen, and the jury will want vengeance, justice, or something, for the good guy. This is how a conviction is made.  Also, police and prosecutors know their audiences: it is the general public. What is the general public’s IQ? How does the general public feel about victims and justice?

    2. Corroboration: Talking to the victim, or alleged victim as I like to call him/her, gives the cops a list of other people to talk to, witnesses, before they talk to the person they’re trying to cast in the “bad guy” role.

    This is how under-handed the police mindset is, as talking to other witnesses first becomes a set-up for the defendant to put his own picture in the frame, or cast himself in the starring role. It also gives police an inside edge, as this leads to a cross-examining of the defendant from their first contact.

    This is part of the officer’s job. And it works in their favor — talking to other witnesses gives “corroboration” to the alleged victim’s story. If the witnesses back up the victim’s story, then the cops have some corroboration, and the victim’s story sounds more like it would stand up in court. Back to selling this story to a jury: if there’s a witness who says the same thing as the alleged victim, then the jury will have more sympathy toward the alleged victim, and it is easier to get a conviction.

    3. Contacting the defendant: The scene is now set, the cops have a victim, and some witnesses. Now all they need in the play is the bad guy.Once the cops call the potential defendant, they begin with what is called a “leading” question. Sometimes these are called open-ended questions. It’s the sort of question an interviewer uses on a job interview, such as, “where do you see yourself in five years?” it doesn’t lead to a “yes” or “no,” instead it leads to more of an explanatory answer.

    Or, in the potential scenario of being pulled over, it sounds more like this “How fast did you think you were going?” This leads to an answer that can be incriminating such as, “I’m not sure, but I think was going about 35.”

    Except in our “play,” as written by the police, it sounds a bit more like, “Hi, Jim. My name is officer Bishop with the County sheriff’s office. Tom talked to us, and said you committed a crime against him.”

    This open-ended statement might lead a person to possibly deny the assertion, or to try to correct the cops. The problem is that any other statement a potential defendant makes at this point can be used to cast him in the role of bad guy, no matter the answer.

    Usually by this time, again, cops have talked to other witnesses, and so once the defendant says something, an officer can counter with “Well, Mr. Johnson said you went after Tom with a carving knife.” Here’s the corroboration coming to assist the cops, and further explanations by defendants are only helping the police.

    Also, the next thing a defendant says – even if it is the truth — may lead to a credibility problem not too far down the road. The options are to either a) deny what has been said by Mr. Johnson, or possibly point the finger at someone else; or b) deny what was said totally. (Option (c) is also available, however).

    At the first contact by police, asserting an attorney’s assistance would be helpful. Instead, defendant should answer, “I’m sorry officer, but I can’t talk to you without my attorney present.” That’s option (c), which no one seems to take!

    Either way, the cops have an alleged victim, and a corroborating witness who already say nearly the same thing. But according to the defendant, those two are both liars now. That won’t seem likely to a potential jury, will it? This is just grist for the mill of the prosecution. Think again of the audience, which is the general public. Who should the jury believe: the defendant – or all of the possible ways to agree with the prosecution: instead the jury can believe the alleged victim, officer testimony, credible witness testimony . . .

    Police also know that facts are confusing – the victim and one or two witnesses usually get a few facts wrong, but this still can be OK to a jury. The victim is sympathetic; so it makes sense what with being attacked that the victim might get a few facts wrong.

    4. The defendant’s natural response works against him. This is where manipulation also comes into play, in case it wasn’t used already when contacting the defendant. Most people are raised to think that the cops are good people, and that working with the cops will help everyone (even when being questioned about something).

    A second natural response happens when police contact a suspect. The suspect wants to “set the record straight” about what really happened. This works against the suspect as well. The police aren’t interested in getting it straight, they are interested in the “good guy/bad guy” scenario.

    Back to my job: I can’t tell you how many times I have had clients tell me “I was respectful”– “I didn’t make a scene,”– or “I cooperated.” Even clients with fairly extensive criminal records tell me this, when their prior involvement with law enforcement should have them knowing better. Who cares whether you cooperate with the police? The police will do their job whether you cooperate or not. And that’s what they are paid to do, so why help them to do their job? I don’t see the cops coming along to help you do yours, now do I?

    5. The fact that cops wear uniforms works in their favor. It’s intimidating, for one. Second, it tends to lead to obedience on the part of defendants. Clients/defendants know that cops have uniforms, guns, and jails at their disposal. So it’s easier for cops to get compliance, and so defendants/clients to give in to authority: the alternative can be scary – even if you are innocent. People in that situation tend to want to get out the situation as quickly as possible, so it’s easier to tell the cops something. Third, the uniforms are de-humanizing. It’s not a guy who happens to be a cop, it’s a cop! People see the uniform, but not the individual in uniform.

    Well folks, that is all I have for now. Thanks for listening. Feel free to comment, leave suggestions, etc. My upcoming specials will be:

    Part two: The Big C: When do your Constitutional rights “attach” to the situation?

    Part three: Evidence problems. What the police report says, can it be “in” evidence?

     

    Lastly: this is totally worth the watch: a criminal law professor covers exactly the same topic I just did!

  • I Fucking Love Astrology: The Horoscope for the week of October 28

    A busy week for scorpios.

    This week’s alignments:  Sol-Mercury-Saturn.  Something bad is ending, or at least we will find out about it this week.  Anything bad in particular?  Hard to say.  There are indicatiors that it refers to a venereal disease or genital dysfunction (Venus retrogade in Scorpio) though this could also indicate some gossipy person catches a sudden case of STFU.  The stronger indicator (Saturn) indicates the trouble ceasing has something to do with… sea-goats.  Does that mean anything to you?  If sea-cows are manatees, does that make sea goats narwhals?  Walruses?

    This week, Derpetologist and Mustang are going to get laid.  Or possibly divorced.  There’s a crapton of ambivalence in the skies this week.  We’ve got Sol-Terra-Venus(retrograde) with Mars in opposition.  Which means home/love with both benevolent and malign influences and martial aspects either resisting or the root cause of them.  Very two faced.

    Speaking of two-faced, Gemini gets a visit from the moon, which is the classic sign of betrayal.  If the moon were waxing, you could see it as an expansion of your circle of friends, but the moon is waning, so back-stabbery it is.

    This week,scorpio is having a party and everyone is invited. They’ve got the sun (that’s good!) Venus(retrograde) (that’s bad!) Jupiter (that’s good!) and Mercury (that’s… disruptive but indeterminate)

  • ZARDOZ VS. DEAR ABBY

     

    ONCE AGAIN, ZARDOZ IS BACK TO RAISE HIS CHOSEN ONES FROM BRUTALITY, AND BRING PROPER ADVICE TO THE PATHETIC BRUTALS SEEKING ADVICE FROM THE WRETCHED BRUTAL THEREPIST:  DEAR ABBY

    DEAR ABBY: I’m a millennial, and it seems these days people stay at jobs for only a few years before moving on. That has been my experience in the past, but now I’m in a position that’s fulfilling and where I am creatively satisfied.

    All my friends are always looking for their next gig, but for once, I don’t feel that way. They keep sending me job postings they think I would be interested in, which would be right up my alley if I was looking, but I’m not.

    How should I respond? Does it say I’m lacking motivation or goals if I don’t have the desire to leave the company where I am currently working? In this day and age, is it OK to stay longer at a company, or does that actually hurt your resume? Does it show a lack of drive? — SEEKING GUIDANCE

    ZARDOZ TAKE $100 FOR “THINGS THAT NEVER HAPPENED, ALEX”.

    ZARDOZ HAS IT ON HIGH AUTHORITY THAT MILLENIALS ARE AMONG THE FILTHIEST OF BRUTALS AND ARE INCAPABLE OF MAINTAINING ANY MEANINGFUL EMPLOYMENT.  BRUTAL SEEKING GUIDANCE THEREFORE IS A TROLL, A FALSE FLAG, AND THUS IS BEST SUITED TO TOILING THE GRAIN FIELDS FOR THE VORTEX.

    ZARDOZ HAS SPOKEN

     

     

    DEAR ABBY: I’ve had it up to here with my crabby next-door neighbor. She grows vegetables in her garden — squash and pumpkins at this time of year. Our properties are separated by a wire fence.

    A few days before Halloween last year, a friend brought her two grandsons, who are 4 and 6, for a visit. They were excited to find a pumpkin in my yard that weighed about 10 pounds and managed to get it into my house because they wanted to make a jack-o’-lantern. No sooner did I reach for the phone to tell my neighbor what they had done than she came banging at my door accusing the boys of theft! To make peace, I handed the pumpkin to her with my apologies.

    This morning I noticed two pumpkins have tendrils that have crept through the fence and are now growing on my property. More than one person has told me, “They’re on your property, so they belong to you.” Another has said that if my tree grows over her property, she has the right to trim the branches. Ergo: I get to keep the pumpkins. I think a fair solution is to keep one pumpkin and give her the other. But “Crabby Cathy” might have other ideas. Before this gets ugly again, what do you say? — PUMPKIN PILFERER IN PETALUMA, CALIF.

    BRUTAL OBSESSION WITH PUMPKINS IS AGGRIVATING.  IT IS PUMPKIN SPICE EVERYTHING THESE DAYS AND ZARDOZ NO LONGER  ACCEPTS BRUTAL FIXATION ON PUMPKINS.  THE ONLY THING ZARDOZ HATE MORE THAT PUMPKIN ARE THE DISGUSTING BRUTALS THAT PERPETUATE BRUTAL INFATUATION WITH THE FLAVOURLESS GOURD.  ZARDOZ ONLY ADVICE, IS TO SEEK BRUTAL NEIGHBOUR AND CLEANSE ALL WHO INTEND TO SPREAD THE SCURGE OF PUMPKIN MANIA.  PUMKIN SEED SHALL NO LONGER PLAUGUE THE EARTH IF ZARDOZ HAS ANYTHING TO SAY ABOUT IT.

    ZARDOZ HAS SPOKEN

  • What Are We Reading – October 2018

    OMWC

    Geek books and real books. My fun real book this past month was by H.L. Mencken, who was incapable of writing anything uninteresting. Although we love him for his short and cynical essays, chock full of quotable and meme-able sentences, his scholarly work is equally enjoyable. The American Language is a study on how our version of English developed and on the taxonomy of American vocabulary, grammar, and usage. It delights my inner geek, amuses and informs on every page, and gives a fascinating insight into Mencken’s inner thoughts on the language that he used so brilliantly and effectively. I was less thrilled with a lot of the updates added by editors after Mencken’s stroke and eventual death, but at least they were kind enough to set their portions off in brackets.

    My geek book for the month is High Fidelity Circuit Design, by Norman Crowhurst and George Cooper. This is a book from the 1950s that has recently been reprinted. If you want to understand Nyquist stability criteria, feedback, and the finer points of tube amplifier design (I told you it was a geek book!), look no further. These days, engineers use computer modeling to determine gain and phase margins for stability and sims to predict performance, but back in the stone ages, they actually plotted stuff on graph paper and used rulers and protractors. I confess that reading this covered my with waves of anachrophilia.

    SugarFree

    October is the month for horror. I went back to the classics: Dracula, Frankenstein and The Strange Case of Dr. Jekell and Mr. Hyde. Old friends to cuddle up with.

    If you’ve never, Frankenstein plays out far differently that pretty much every movie adaption. The Monster is made over just a few pages of grave robbing and surgery, no electricity and no cackling, and Frankenstein is young, only about 21, and while full of hubris, he isn’t a mad scientist, just a mildly full-of-himself student. It would be interesting to see a film adaptation actually tackle the book.

    SP

    Let’s see, what have I been reading this month. I’ve just started The Pattern of Evolution by Niles Eldredge, which our European guest had selected from our library for bedtime reading and left laying on the table upon his departure. (One of the great benefits of marrying another extreme reader is that there are always books that I haven’t read, and I don’t even have to venture out to the library or pay Amazon.)

    I’m revisiting The Drunken Botanist by Amy Stewart. Stewart has put together a pretty comprehensive look at the major plants, herbs, spices, that are made into various potent potables. There are interesting historical notes about the discovery and use of the different ingredients, and some geeky botany stuff, too. Oh, and recipes for drinks. This isn’t really a book one reads straight through, although I am. But I also read cookbooks cover to cover just for fun.

    Just picked up the book mexican sharpshooter has recently reviewed, Data in Decline: Why Polling and Social Research Miss the Mark by Steve Wood. I expect a throughly interesting read.

    In fiction, I’m still working my way through the Harry Bosch series by Michael Connelly on Kindle. I haven’t viewed the series which is based on the character, but I might add it to my watchlist.

    In audio, I was listening to A Dangerous Fortune by Ken Follett, but I’ve kind of lost interest about halfway through. Plot: Horrible people do horrible things. Less horrible people also sometimes do horrible things. Especially in 19th century banking empires, British politics, and banana republics run by thugs. Eh. Probably won’t finish it unless I end up having another long, tedious drive alone.

    jesse.in.mb

    I don’t have much to report. I went on a bit of a binge of buying cookbooks including Mormioto’s Mastering the Art of Japanese Home Cooking which is accessible enough and got me to make my own dashi from scratch (god damn did my kitchen stink of fish for days, but it was very tasty). I found the content personal, but I was hoping for more…I dunno, context for the food I was preparing. I also grabbed Maangchi’s Real Korean Cooking more to kick money her way than anything as I’ve been scraping recipes from her website for years (The Boyfriend does not approve of how much I gravitate to her more gochugaru-centric offerings).

    I burned through the available issues of The Chilling Adventures of Sabrina which started off with just the right level of twisting to the character I was first introduced to by Melissa Joan Hart, but I’m not sure it is living up to its promise so far.

    Started but not finished: I circled back to The Lies of Locke Lamora, and pushed through until it found its groove. I’m a little more than half-way done at this point so maybe by next WAWR I’ll have a final opinion. I’ve been chipping away at just the introduction to James R. Walker’s Lakota Myth, which has been unskippably interesting, but also too academic for the naked-poolside-reading I was hoping the main contents would be while Iwas in Palm Springs…perhaps next time I’ll have more.

    JW

    A wise man once screamed “NO! You must not read from the book!“and I have followed that advice ever since.

    A Leap At The Wheel

    Books on Audiobook:

    The Wizard of Oz: Or so I thought.  It was actually a 2 hour radio broadcast will a full cast.  Not recommended.

    Till We Have Faces: I didn’t realize this was fiction, based only on the name I assumed it was non-fiction.  But it was one of the few Lewis books left that I hadn’t read so I threw a hold on it in the library’s audiobook application.  It is in fact fiction, and it is fantastic.  In addition to being written by an expert craftsman, this is a novel that would be pretty impossible to write in this day and age.  The concept of having a female protagonist who takes up some masculine role in society would inevitably become bogged down in the current simple-minded discussion of gender issues.  But being written in the 50s actually allows Lewis to write a stronger, more interesting female character that provides a clearer analysis of gender roles.  Nothing turns me off of fiction faster than weak women, and between this book and That Hideous Strength, its nice to see my literary hero doesn’t fall into my literary pet peeve. Also, this not really a book about gender roles.  Its not a book about any one thing, because it is about nine or so different things.  If I had to pick one thing it was about the most, it would be about how you would get along in a world where the divine is real and doesn’t really love us.  Highest Recommendation.

    Democracy in America: Ufda.  I find historical books about history and political economy really interesting, but they require a lot of concentration because you need to both consider the words on the page and the frame of reference that they were written in.  Kind of like the Screwtape Letters.  In any case, 34 hours of that is just too much for me this month, when I’ve either been too sick to do productive work (fucking strep, fucking high-false-negative strep tests), or working 7 days a week to catch up.  Only made it through about the first third, I’ll come back later.  Incomplete.

    Whitepapers: I don’t normally list all the whitepapers and journal articles that I read, but there were some interesting ones that might be of interest here

    Why Suburban Districts Need Public Charter Schools

    Honestly, there isn’t much groundbreaking here, but it lays out the argument for charter schools in the suburbs.  Just the kind of thing you would expect to find from some shitlord conservative think-tank like… *needle scratch* the Progressive Policy Institute?  Interesting for that reason alone.

    Hidden Tribes

    You know all those people saying “80% of the US is opposed to political correctness?”  This is the research that they are pulling from.  Its generally a pretty interesting look at the electorate, though I think it has some shortcomings.  It’s interesting because the categorization they propose feels truthy, and it seems to be a better signal than party affiliation for predicting opinions of the tribes.  It’s limited because it doesn’t spend a lot of time on meeeeeeee and my tribe.  Political opinion is a high dimensional space, and this projects that space onto a single axis.  It puts me in the moderate camp, which is probably right in that I’m pretty close to center on the left-right axis.  But I’m a huge outlier on a bunch of other axes on the political space.  A model is only as good or bad as its predictive power, and this seems predictive for a lot of people.  “Bad for outliers” is hardly a reason to reject a model.  And I found it to be very helpful to see the divisions within the right wing and within the left wing.  Its not news that the right and left disagree, but disagreements within the wings are pretty important these days.  Highly Recommended.

    Truth Decay

    The truest thing I’ve ever read was the argument that Killmonger was the protagonist in Black Panther, which is an Alt-Right parable.  The second truest thing I’ve ever read was this paper.  This paper documents and discusses the reduction in faith in information provided by institutions like media, government, and academia.  The interesting thing though is that this paper is *incredibly* careful to present the case in a way that doesn’t turn off anyone from any political orientation.  One of my hangups is that a lot of this distrust is the result of these institutions becoming untrustworthy because they are becoming self serving, partisan, and/or low-quality shitholes.  Guess what, it talks about that (maybe using different terminology…)  One of the hang-ups of a friend of mine is that the Right has a financial incentive in developing an ecosystem of alternative news outlet and those with the biggest financial incentive are the loudest talking about how you can’t trust the MSM.  Guess what, it talks about that too.  It is pretty clear that this has been heavily edited to take into considerations the thoughts and objections of reviewers with a very wide array of intellectual orientations, and its a very, very strong document because of that.  I told this friend that this is exhibit A for why educational institutions need intellectual heterogeneity.  While this progressive friend is not yet ready to admit that academia is a stifling monoculture, this paper is helping me change his mind. Highest Recommendation

    Podcasts: I just wanted to call this one out because it is really, really interesting

    So to Speak Podcast with Don Verrilli. Verilli was the Solicitor General in the Obama administration.  He is, quite possibly, the most skilled Supreme Court lawyer alive.  I probably don’t agree with him on anything policy-wise, but when the guy talks about how to argue in front of the Supreme Court, there aren’t too many living people with more to say.  And when he makes an admission against interest, well, that’s worth taking a note of.  He makes two here.

    First, Verilli says that he thinks the Roberts Court really does support the 1st amendment because they have an ideological commitment to it.  Its not just a tool for achieving a partisan end of being pro-business or owning the libs.  I think this too, but its nice to hear it confirmed like this.

    Second, an more importantly, Verilli comes out and says that there’s not an Originalist argument for campaign finance laws.  He talks about how the Founders had a broader understanding of corruption that the modern court does.  But even if that’s true, they didn’t think that there was an exception to the 1A to combat this.  I don’t think he says it, but this is consistent with the idea that it was the structure of the government that was supposed to prevent this type of corruption, not restrictions on civilian action.  Recommended if you follow the SC

  • BakedPenguin’s NFL Pick-’em for Week 8

    I went 6-7 last week, so I’m still doing crappy. I put in  a lot more effort last week, and got the same result as when I was half-assing it. You can probably guess what’s going to happen this week. That being said, I’ve added the moneyline odds. Moneyline odds are based around 100 – if there’s a plus in front of them, it’s the amount you’d win from a $100 bet. If there’s a minus, it’s the amount you’d have to bet to get $100. So in the first example, a $100 bet on Miami would win you $290, where a $360 bet on Houston would win you $100.

    If anyone wants to know, I got my odds here, on 10/25.

     

    Here are this week’s picks:

    Miami (+290) at Houston (-7.5 / -360). The Dolphins haven’t been so bad, and the Texans haven’t been so good to normally support a spread over a TD, but Ryan Tannehill is out. And while he’s not the greatest QB around, he’s the best the Dolphins have. HOU – give the points.

    Philadelphia (-3 / -165) at Jacksonville (+145). Cody Kessler seemed to breathe new life into the Jaguars in the second half of last week’s game. After screwing up for an entire month, however, they still have a lot to prove. PHI – give the points.

    Cleveland (+320) at Pittsburgh (-8.5 / -400). Cleveland has shown that they are a much better team than last year. Tough defense, decent running game. I’d be very surprised if the Steelers can meet that point spread. CLE – take the points.

    Denver (+400) at Kansas City (-10 / -520). Again, a point spread I’m not sure that the favorite can meet. The Chiefs have shown they are a strong team, but the Broncos displayed their own skills last week. Even if it was just the Cardinals that they stomped. I wouldn’t take the moneyline, even at 4 to 1, but I’d take the spread. DEN – take the points.

    NY Jets (+280) at Chicago (-7 / -340). Chicago has shown a great talent for letting me down. I think they’ll win, but again, I think it will be close. NYJ – take the points.

    Washington (-110) at NY Giants (PK / -110). The Redskins showed some toughness in their win over the Cowboys. Maybe it’s just because I haven’t paid enough attention, but I don’t see the Giants beating them. WAS

    Seattle (+135) at Detroit (-3 / -150). I’ve been underestimating the Lions all season. At home against the Seahawks, I’ll stop that. DET – give the points.

    Tampa Bay (+170) at Cincinnati (-4 / -200). Tampa isn’t a bad team, but Winston throws a lot of passes to people in the wrong jerseys. Cincinnati is a good enough team to take advantage of that. CIN – give the points.

    Baltimore (-2 / -130) at Carolina (+115). Baltimore is a good enough team to beat Carolina. Cam Newton is a good enough QB to be a pain in the ass for the Ravens, but I don’t think he’s quite good enough to get the win. And with a 2 point spread, it’s basically a pick’em game. BAL – give the points.

    Indianapolis (-3 / -155) at Oakland (+135). Oakland has lost a lot of close games, but the Colts have a good offense. A really good offense. IND – give the points.

    San Francisco (-1 / -110) at Arizona (-110). Ah, the suck bowl. Does anyone care? Meh, ARI – take the point.

    Green Bay (+350) at LA Rams (-9 / -450). I think the Rams will probably win, but again, I also think the Packers are a good enough team to cover the spread. I’d feel better about that prediction if the spread was 11 points, though. GB – take the points.

    New Orleans (-110) at Minnesota (-1 / -110). The Vikings are a good team, but I don’t know if they’re as good as the Saints. NO – give the point.

    New England ( -14 / -1250) at Buffalo (+800). Okay, now that is a point spread. Still, I think the Patriots will make that. NE – give the points.

  • I Fucking Love Astrology: The Horoscope for the Week of October 21 (Take Two)

    This week I had family staying with me, so I had to work on the horoscope in fits and starts, all the while making sure that the SIL didn’t see what I was doing.  She’s the kind of person that believes everything that’s on the news, so she has completely internalized every moral panic since the early 1980s; she strongly disapproves of the occult alternative recreational epistemology.  She only lets the kids have graph paper to do homework in order to prevent them from playing D&D.  She does make a truly excellent pie crust though, and that matters a lot.

    Anyway I had some really interesting stuff in the charts: fire, war, fire, cataclysm, death, destruction, fire and victory.  But as I was typing up the results, one of my fire indicators was Sol in Leo, which cannot happen in October.  It turns out I had laid out everything for August 8, 1945.

    Anyway, this week’s skies are much less dramatic.  Venus is still retrograde, but there’s only some BARCO alignments to spread her baleful influence.  The first being Terra-Venus(retrograde)-Mercury-Jupiter.  This means that news of your venereal sins will reach people important to you.  Maybe put those sins off for a week.  The other BARCO alignment is Terra-Mars-Luna.  This often heralds military deployments, but I understand that Obama ended all wars, so it’s more likely that the alternative reading of “Military Success” is more likely*.

    What with all this warlike stuff, it’s worth noting that Mars is still hanging out in Aquarius, where it is conjunction with the moon.  It’s an auspicious time for any naval glibs.  Scorpio’s dry spell continues with additional warnings not to try and break it in an illegal fashion.  See alignment 1 supra.  Libra is hanging around with the Sun.  And FINALLY Saturn(retrograde) in Capricorn is over!!! It’s now Saturn(direct) in Capricorn.  I don’t think I’ve ever been so happy to see the sign of famine before.  Actually, since the returning to direct motion is such a positive thing, this particular instance of it probably has more to do with success in weight loss than in Live Aid.

    Good luck in the coming week.  If you need me, I’ll be vacuuming up dog hair.

    *These are the best indicators since it doesn’t tell you for whom the success will be.  You can read Terra as indicating “us” or it can represent the country being invaded.  If I were reading this in Poland, I’d be more constrained.

  • BakedPenguin’s NFL Pick-’em: Week 7

    I think I went 6-7-1 last week, so that sucks. I’m going to put in a little more effort this week to try to improve on that.

    If anyone wants to know, I got my odds here, on 10/18.

     

    It’s that time of the week again. Here are this week’s picks:

    Denver (-1) at Arizona. I do believe the Broncos can handle the Cardinals, even in Arizona. They haven’t traveled well this year (0-2), but Arizona hasn’t been an intimidating place to play (Cards: 0-3 at home) The top two leaders in tackles for the Cards (who are both in the top 5 in the NFL) are both safeties, suggesting to me that they’re letting a lot of rushes into their backfield (To be fair, their #3 guy is an LB). Their offense is the really weak part of the team, however, as only Buffalo has scored fewer points this year. Denver’s biggest weakness corresponds to Arizona’s. Denver’s rushing defense (27th) hasn’t been very good this year, but Arizona’s rushing game (32nd) has been terrible. Meanwhile, their rushing game against the Cards’ rushing defense shows a pretty big advantage. DEN – give the point.

    Note: due to me sending this in late, this will be posted after this game has finished. If I got the pick wrong, you know that’s true.

    Tennessee at LA Chargers (-6.5). The Titans are another team with a mediocre offense, one I think the Chargers can deal with. On the other side of the ball, the Titans have a decent defense, although their passing defense is much better than their running defense (26th). This works in favor of the Chargers, particularly Melvin Gordon. Playing in LA, I think the Chargers will be able to get that extra TD to beat the spread. LAC – give the points.

    New England (-3) at Chicago. I wish the point spread were larger, it would give me more confidence in saying the Bears may well have a rebound game at home (against the spread, if nothing else). They’ve done well at home, while the Patriots have looked great at Gillette Stadium, and well… not so much anywhere else. The one key weakness I would fear would be Chicago’s average pass defense against Tom Brady and the rest of a team that knows how to make plays when necessary. Usually. CHI – take the points.

    Cleveland at Tampa Bay (-3.5). The one area where the Buccaneers have shown real weakness is pass defense, where they are giving up the highest average YPG and over 3 TDs a game. They are quite fortunate, therefore, to be playing the Browns, who are tied for scoring the fewest passing TDs per game behind high round draft pick Baker Mayfield. Cleveland’s running game is one of the strongest in the league, although Tampa has shown they aren’t too bad at stopping the run. I think the biggest question is, can Jameis Winston throw more TDs to his own receivers than “completions” to Denzel Ward? Assuming the answer is yes, I’ll go with the Bucs at home. TB – give the points

    Detroit (-3) at Miami. The Dolphins stats don’t seem to support their record (partially due to a large blowout loss in New England). The only statistical advantage I can see for them is Miami’s ground game against the Lions’ rushing defense. And while Miami’s passing defense has given up a lot of yardage, they also have the most interceptions in the league. Additionally, Detroit hasn’t shown they can play on the road this year. MIA – take the points

    Carolina at Philadelphia (-4.5). Another game where I think the home/road records come into play. The statistical matchups are fairly even. A lot will come down to how the Eagles’ can (or cannot) hold Cam Newton at bay (or intercept him three times as they did last year). While that’s unlikely, I do think they will be able to turn their home field into a real advantage. PHI – give the points

    Buffalo at Indianapolis (-7.5). The Bills have shown a heroic inability to score points, with the one unusual exception being their one win against Minnesota. They recently hired Former Panthers QB Derek Anderson to pump up their anemic passing. I think the most important matchup will be the Colts passing vs Buffalo’s pass defense. While the Bills could keep it close with good defensive play and better offense, I don’t expect their new QB to make that much of a difference. IND – give the points

    Cincinnati at Kansas City (-6). The Bengals had a hard time dealing with Pittsburgh’s passing, and they are now facing a similar problem facing the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes. While the Bengals have shown they can play on the road, they’re also now facing one of the best offenses smarting over a close loss. Their best hope is going to come dealing with a mediocre Kansas City defense. KC – give the points

    Minnesota (-3) at NY Jets. The Jets are going to have a hard time stopping Kirk Cousins. The other matchups in this game are pretty much of a wash, statistically. They are probably going to get somewhere on the ground, but unless Sam Darnold plays better than he has previously this year, I think the Vikings have a definite advantage. MIN – give the points

    Houston at Jacksonville (-4.5) The Jaguars remain the league’s statistical leader on defense, although they appear to be in freefall after two big losses to Dallas and Kansas City. Meanwhile, The Texans appear to be on the rise after starting the season 0-3. I think this is one game where the numbers don’t matter nearly as much as the motivations for the players. The Jaguars will be looking to end their losing ‘streak’ at home, and they do have the talent to do so. JAC – give the points

    New Orleans at Baltimore (-2.5). The Saints have the league’s highest scoring offense going up against the league’s stingiest defense in the Ravens. Typically, in this matchup, you pick defense over offense. However, I’m feeling contrarian right now. NO – take the points

    LA Rams (-9.5) at San Francisco. I’ve been checking team and individual player stats for a while. For this one, I’m just going to take the Rams. LAR – give the points

    NY Giants at Atlanta (-5). The matchups for this one are fairly even. As above, I’m getting lazy, and it’s getting late, so I’m just going to go with the home team. ATL – give the points                                                                                                                                 .