Category: Finance

  • R C Dean Gets BIFfed

    R C Dean Gets BIFfed

    Lackadaisical (PBUH) sent me a nice selection of upstate NY beers.

    For some reason, the arrival of the BIF box got me thinking about something that has struck me as an odd inversion.  It used to be that beer was the cheap/economical way to get your booze on (and it still can be, if you stick with mass market beers), but given the price for craft beers (which is still a little shocking to someone who started drinking beer back when the only thing on the shelf was cheap crap), I have been laboring under the perception that they are actually as or more expensive than cocktails.

    However, I was moved to do the math.  A six-pack of good craft beer costs me between $10 – 12.00, call it $1.75 a bottle.  A bottle of beer has between .75 and 1.0 oz. of alcohol, so to be we’ll say craft beer delivers alcohol at @ $2.00 per ounce.  Your typical fifth of booze is 80 proof, and so it has 10.25 oz. of alcohol.  Now, there is crazy variability in booze prices, so we’ll take Bulleit Rye as our standard, which costs me $21.00 for a fifth, or . . . $2.05 per oz. of alcohol (before mixers).

    Bottom line:  there’s so much variability in price per oz. for both beer and booze that its hard to give a general rule, but the craft beer market (although it seems pricey to this old-timer) actually is pretty much equivalent per oz. to cocktails, maybe a little cheaper.  I would say craft beer and cocktails both deliver the goods within about the same (broad) range.

    I’m not the most critical beer drinker, and tend in general to enjoy pretty much whatever is in front of me at the time.  With that in mind, my impressions:

    Rohrbach Scotch Ale:  Either this one or the Asylum Porter were my favorites.  This is an excellent example of Scotch Ale, one of my preferred types of beer.  Decently full bodied, nice caramel malt flavor with some roast, and the hops were behaving themselves and being good team players.

    42 North Asylum Porter:  Very interesting beer, probably more depth and more flavors around the edges than the Scotch Ale.  I got a little bitter chocolate and maybe coffer, and just enough smoke, but not so much that it was getting into the stout range.  The kind of beer that you keep working because you want to chase some of the flavors.

    Rohrbach Patty’s Irish Ale:  A good Irish Ale – very comparable to their Scotch Ale, not quite as much body, and a hair less roasted flavors, a little drier on the finish.  No complaints, would drink again.

    Genesee Octoberfest:  Genesee in general takes me back to my college days, and this is a competent, if not too exciting, beer.  Adequately malty, if not quite as much body as I might like.  Decent flavor.  I would say this is an excellent beer to take to a tailgating party to class it up a little, and not go broke when your friends (and their friends) go through your cooler like a Mongol horde.

    Big Ditch Hayburner:  An IPA, but not hop soup.  I can tolerate a legit IPA, so long as the brewer hasn’t decided that  adding hops is somehow going to compensate for certain . . . personal shortcomings.  This is a good example of the breed – decent body, hops definitely there but a little more on the floral side (which I prefer) rather than tastebud-killing bitterness.

    Big Ditch Low Bridge:  Interesting beer – a golden ale (whatever that is).  Kinda-to-pretty hoppy; in a blind test I would have likely said this was a pale ale of some kind, but maybe a little maltier than I expect from a pale ale.  It went right down, I’ll tell you that.  A good beer for moderately spicy food.  May get the nod over the Genesee for a good session beer, depending on how you like the hopping.

    Not a dud in the bunch.  I would not be sorry to discover any of these in my fridge.  Thanks, Lack (and Nephilium)!   Will BIF again.

  • Volunteer to Stop Welfare

    So, I could go out and get on food-stamps and get a welfare check, but I don’t like the idea of forcing anyone to pay for me to be lazy.  So instead, put your libertarian mouths where your hoarded gold is and volunteer to pay me to be lazy!

    I have started a Patreon page where you can give as much or as little as you like (as low as a dollar a month, less than it costs to feed a starving kid in Africa) to help support the Hat and the Hair cartoons.

    To find out more visit: patreon.com/cprm 

  • 8 Forms of Capital or Why Equality of Outcome is Impossible

    One of my favourite Canadians, the Canadian Mike Rowe (Curtis Stone) introduced me to an interesting concept that solidified in my mind why equality of outcome is ridiculously impossible.

     

    Curtis pulled this from a book that I haven’t read, but he cites it in the video if you’re interested. Frankly, the concept is a bit hippy-dippy for me, so you may see a bit of measured skepticism from me.

    The premise of the video is that there are 8 forms of capital:

    Financial capital – money

    Material capital – non-liquid assets

    Living capital – plants/animals/ability to cultivate plant and animals

    Social capital – relationships with others

    Cultural/Power capital – things your community values, tradition, powerful connections, reputation

    Intellectual capital – book knowledge

    Experiential capital – practical knowledge

    Spiritual/Habitual capital – religious attainment, unflappability, disposition toward success

    My broad definition of capital captures all of these. Capital is a thing of value that is able to be bestowed upon others in an exchange. You can group these categories into three main groups. Asset Capital  – (Financial, Material, Living), Human Capital (Intellectual, Experiential), and Relational Capital – (Social, Cultural, Spiritual). I’ve sort of modified the spiritual capital category to include non-spiritual habits. I think it’s a bit of a stretch to call spirituality a form of capital, so I’m bolstering it. Similarly, I’ve bolstered cultural capital to include reputation and powerful connections such as exists when you’re a government representative, for example.

    The reason why equality of outcome will never happen is simple. You can only confiscate and redistribute asset capital. It is impractical to the extreme to redistribute Human Capital and Relational Capital.

    A prog may argue, however, that it doesn’t matter. The only “real” capital is Asset Capital. So, they go full commie… from each according to their ability to each according to their need, and we’re all now on exact equal footing asset-wise. How long before somebody with more human and relational capital trades something of value for some money? Now that person has $10 more than the rest of us and one less chicken. How long before the carpenter lends his services to me, takes my tree and returns me a finished table in exchange for $100? It’s not long before the communist utopia turns into a mess of inequality and oppression again.

    It comes down to a basic truism. Knowledge, relationships, assets, habits, and power are all of value, and they’re all interrelated to one another. Just like a loom increases the value of a textile worker, non-asset capital increases the ability of a person to acquire asset capital. After all, rich people do rich people things and poor people do poor people things. When a poor person wins the lottery, they’re as likely as not to be broke within a few years.

    I don’t know if I fully believe in this model. Calling things like traditions and religious attainment “capital” seems a bit wonky. However, this exposes a basic truth. Equality of opportunity will, by definition, result in inequality of outcome. We each have a unique mix of these 8 categories of “capital”, and even when presented with the same base set of laws and opportunities, we will apply our “capital” differently from one another. Equality of outcome is exposed as the soft bigotry that it is. It’s a forced leveling, a social engineering to subsidize those who have less human and relational capital and to punish those who have more of it.

  • Why Are Precious Metals Precious?

     

    Why do we view these metals as valuable?

    The most understandable reason, obviously is utility. Certain properties of these metals can accomplish what nothing else can, or at least, at a far less cost.

    However, that doesn’t seem to relate to the value of most of the precious metals.

     

    (Note: I’d add copper) The value of these metals appears totally unrelated to any utility they have. Their utility as money (rare, stable units) may play a part today.

    911 Metallurgist gives a good rundown of why people would want these metals for specific business /  use purposes. And while that’s understandable, it doesn’t account for the massive price of the metals beyond what they can accomplish economically.

    That’s my main point: these metals are valued at a price point far beyond their utility. So what makes them valuable?

    The history of civilization does provide a massive clue: they have been used as currency for millennia. But the question regarding fiat currencies still applies: if no one values them, do they have any value?

    Please feel free to show me I’m wrong.

  • Money is a Bitch

     

    Author’s note: This isn’t an essay. It’s an excerpt from one of my books. I don’t say much here on Glibs that is particularly thoughtful because I’ve already said it either in a book or on my blog. I work out what I think while I’m writing. I try not to be didactic in my storytelling, but I probably am.

    This is a post-argument conversation between our (tidge naïve) bond trader math professor hero Jack and (street savvy) concert pianist music professor heroine Daisy while they are cooped up in a tiny dark room and tiny bed together. They’re both irritated over sex and why they aren’t having it right that moment.

    • • •

    “Talk to me about something.”

    “What,” he snapped.

    “Money.”

    His eyes popped open. “What about her?”

    “That. You called money ‘her.’ You did it yesterday, too. You talk about money like it’s a person.”

    Shit, the second he thought she couldn’t surprise him, she turned around and did. He swung his foot up into bed again and laid on his back. She turned on her side and rested her hand on his chest.

    “Money,” he began slowly, thinking. He hadn’t given this lecture in years because the people he taught were too analytical for anything but the math. They wanted skills, not philosophy. “Isn’t a person. She’s an entity. One who’s quiet and restful when she’s being kept in balance, well tended, appreciated. One who’ll rip you to shreds if you do something that upsets her equilibrium, not because she’s pissed off, but because that’s just her nature. She must be in balance. Like a ship. She’s fine when the weather’s good, but she’ll still sink if you’re not tending her, making little repairs so they don’t become big problems. When a storm comes along, she has a hard time getting back into balance.”

    “What’s the ocean?” she asked softly.

    “People. The ocean, the weather cannot be controlled but you’re forced out into it. The ship can be controlled to a certain extent, but you have to pay attention. No ship comes out of a storm without damage, without loss, but someone is going to pay for the repairs or the loss.”

    “But what about rich people?”

    “‘People’ is the operative word,” he said, winding up with the promise of a decent conversation with somebody who might understand after all. “That money is carefully tended, yes, but anything can happen. There are few things that can bankrupt the superwealthy. But economies can collapse. More and more worthless pieces of paper can be printed. A government can come in and take it all away from you. A revolution could happen and then you become Marie Antoinette. Those are things people do, though we talk about them in the collective. Economies. Currency. Governments. Revolutions. People make up those things.”

    “What about Mother Nature?”

    “She’s the supreme bitch and I don’t fuck with her, either. Coffee. Grain. Cocoa. Oranges. Hell, no, I’m not touching anything Mother Nature can get her hands on, but she’s not part of this discussion.”

    “Okay. But if the ocean is people and not Mother Nature, then the metaphor still isn’t complete,” she returned, shocking him again. Even if people did humor him or even understand him to this point, they dropped out of the conversation, thinking it was complete. “Ships sink and then disintegrate.”

    “But then,” he said throatily, suddenly very turned on and running a fingertip softly down her naked, lush body, “what you have left is wealth.”

    “Huh?”

    “Wealth is knowledge. The knowledge that she was there, the knowledge of how to build another ship. Wealth isn’t paper money or gold or anything else you can barter. Wealth is being able to live a fairly decent life without having to worry about any of that. Wealth is having what you need and being happy with what you have and the knowledge to replenish.”

    Silence. For a long time. While her thumb stroked his belly. It wasn’t his nipple, wasn’t his dick, wasn’t his lips, but fuck a duck, it felt good. “By that definition,” she finally said. Slowly. “Diogenes was wealthy.”

    He wanted to kiss her. Right now.

    “No,” he said, feeling her body twitch a little in surprise. “Diogenes was the ballast in the ship of money.”

    “Um … but strangers gave Diogenes whatever he had and he was happy with it.”

    God, he wanted to kiss and lick her from her chipped-neon-green-painted toes to the end of the longest strand of her hair. They were naked now. He could do that.

    Maybe not. Because now he had things to say to someone who got him.

    “Diogenes wasn’t happy with what he had because he wasn’t happy with what everybody else had. Diogenes made a virtue of poverty, which was stupid, because if nobody has anything, everybody dies. For real. That’s it. But strangers gave to him for whatever reason. Maybe giving made them happy. Maybe seeing him sitting there made them feel guilty for what they had that he didn’t. Maybe they believed in what he taught and wanted to support him in that. Doesn’t matter why. Diogenes’s philosophy was shit. His father was a banker, did you know that?”

    “No.”

    Jack laughed. “Yeah. So money stayed in balance because people gave. When you have too much ballast or too much cargo on the deck, money is out of balance.”

    For once in his meager acquaintance with Daisy, she was the one who was stumped. Unprepared. Unlearned. He liked this feeling, the feeling of meeting her on an intellectual field and having the edge. “Where do you fit into that?”

    “I’m the guy up in the ropes walking on the beams and taking up the sails or dropping them or whatever they do up there. Trying to keep her moving when the wind’s against her. Trying to keep her steady when the storms are coming.”

    “You love her.”

    And now he wanted to make love to Daisy all fucking night long, which he couldn’t do because she was still pissy about the clothes.

    “I do,” he answered, “but not like most people mean it. ‘I love money.’ No, I love her as an entity, as a philosophy, a concept of balance. Like a ledger.”

    “Mmm, okay. Then I have a question for you.”

    “Shoot.”

    “Where do underground economies and black markets fit on the ship of money? They exist. They have to serve some purpose or, by your description, the ship wouldn’t be balanced at all.”

    His mind went blank. Totally and completely blank. He was speechless. A fucking piano teacher had blindsided him with his own philosophical musings. “Daisy,” he said throatily. “Either you stop being so fucking brilliant or I’m going to jack off right here.”

    She chuckled softly. “Answer the question.”

    “I dunno,” he admitted easily. “Econ isn’t my specialty, so I never thought about it. I’ve never seen it. Until I got here.”

    “The way I look at it is Diogenes isn’t the ballast. The black market is the ballast. Hidden, but important. Rocks, sand, ordinary things that do as much to keep the ship sailing as the sails do. The stuff that keeps the ship steady when the storm really starts rolling. Diogenes is on some deck inside the ship, being taken care of from the top and the bottom. And when the ship breaks up and sinks, the ballast floats to the bottom of the ocean, under all the people. But they’re still doing what they do. Sitting there, minding their own business, which is business. Pure business. Providing shelter to the deep sea creatures. Hiding them from predators. Feeding them when the ocean—people—makes moss grow on them.”

    He said nothing. His chest was too tight and his dick too hard and his body too tense. She couldn’t talk and have sex at the same time. The stuff that dried her up got him hard and ready to whisper sweet economic philosophies in her ear while stroking in and out, slow and steady.

    “People still come to power,” he finally said. “Even in the underground. Organized crime. Gangs. Using fear and intimidation.”

    “The same thing the IRS uses.”

    “What?”

    “You do understand the IRS is holding a gun to your head, right? Why do you comply? Because if you don’t, you’ll get thrown in jail. If you do anything somebody in power doesn’t like, they can use the IRS to somehow get to you. You don’t pay taxes because you’re ethical. You pay them because you have no choice. You believe it’s immoral not to follow the law, yes?”

    “More or less, yes.”

    “Have you ever considered that the law and regulations are immoral?”

    “Stealing is immoral,” he said, irritated that she was diverting from the interesting part of the conversation.

    “That is a natural law,” she replied. “The IRS is a manmade institution designed to control the populace. And by providing receipts, filing 1099s, W-2s, you are complicit in that control. You don’t have to report all that. You do it because you want the write-off and that’s where your thinking ends, but it’s not about you. The black markets, the underground, would rather take its chances with an enemy they can see and fight if they have to, to get ahead, to climb the economic ladder. No, I misspoke. They’re building their own ladder.

    “Topside, with small businesses, they’re regulated to death. Margins are slim to none. One bad month can make them homeless. In a storm, you can hang on to whatever’s up there. Diogenes can cower somewhere inside the ship before it goes down. I, the black market, the ballast, can function anywhere under any circumstances. The mom’n’pops, the ones paying taxes and licenses like they’re supposed to because they’re ethical, the ones who really take care of Diogenes, but might also be paying protection money, they’re the ones who get washed overboard first. Almost nothing to hang on to. No walls to keep them safer until the storm passes.”

    He was silent for a long, long time, turning all those concepts over in his head, so many of them packed into a few sentences, things he’d never thought about. But she was wrong about one thing. “I have to report wages. It is about me.”

    “I won’t dispute that for you or any company like yours, you’d have to give the appearance of it. But it’d be easy to pay people from an offshore account—”

    “That’s illegal.”

    “But is immoral?”

    He almost said yes automatically but stopped. Was it?

    “Do you eat the cost of your employees’ withholding? Pay their share of the social security as well as yours? You could. If you have independent contractors, you can just not send them a 1099 and nobody would ever know because they aren’t going to report it and if they did, they do it from their internal bookkeeping. Likely they wouldn’t notice you didn’t send them a 1099 at all. You do it because it’s a write-off that feels like an obligation.”

    “I’d go bankrupt inside six months if I did that,” he protested.

    “And that’s how the IRS makes sure you’re complicit. Think about it. Your bottom line would improve if you could just pay people what they earned.”

    She was fucking with his mind.

    “That’s how the underground economy works. Do you know how many of your colleagues use illegal aliens to clean their houses and watch their kids? No, you don’t, because your domestics are on the record and you make sure all the T’s are crossed and the I’s are dotted. It wouldn’t occur to you to do anything else or that eighty percent of your peers hire under the table.”

    “Okay, but exploiting those people is immoral.”

    “Then you have to ask yourself if employing those people under the table is more or less immoral than letting them starve.”

    “They choose to come here.”

    “In hopes of a better future. Jack, look. I’m not trying to defend something you think is immoral or convert you. I want you to think about what the ballast really is.”

    The only thing he could really think about at the moment was how Daisy was so much more than someone who listened to him even if she didn’t understand some things, but asked questions until she did, which meant she was listening. And then could give him something entirely new.

    Not new information. Information was cheap and easy once one knew where to find it. New concepts. New principles. New philosophies. She made him think and thinking was his most favorite thing to do.

    But when she didn’t say anything more, his thinking gradually turned to feeling—feeling her hand on his chest, caressing more, massaging, looking for the knots, going deeper into his muscles. It felt so good, he didn’t know whether he wanted her to keep doing that or give him the handjob his dick was begging for.

    “There are more things involved in the balance you’re looking for,” she whispered, pressing her lips to his cheek. “It’s not just the money. Ethics don’t start with laws and stop with accurate numbers in a ledger. Morality and ethics involve people, and at your core, you just don’t like people.”

  • Creosote Achilles and the Perils of Potrepreneurship

    In the fall of 2017, the outdoor cannabis harvest was a bumper crop for growers throughout the state of Oregon. This epic weed haul was the result of two factors; weather, and bureaucracy. The weather was spectacular for growing cannabis, particularly outdoors. A wet fall, winter, and spring (nearly 220 straight days of rain) meant there was plenty of water available. And the summer was warm and dry. Conditions that are favorable for growing trees with plenty of flower on them. The sunshine helped to ensure that flower would be potent. The other cause was bureaucracy. Normally inimical to the production of any good or service of value, on occasion bureaucrats manage to step on their dicks in such a way as to help the actual productive class. Such was the case in 2017 with the OLCC (the Oregon Liquor Control Commission).

    The OLCC is the regulatory pseudo agency (much like the fed it is a non-government organization with a government mandate) responsible for enforcing Oregon’s pot laws. In 2017, the OLCC declared open season for anyone with a license to grow marijuana when it announced that “due to a lack of allocated funds, enforcement efforts will primarily be focused on those growing cannabis without legal license to do so and on those with a recreational license. However, next year will see increased enforcement for medical growers.” In plain English and practical reality, this meant that as long as you had a medical license you could grow as much pot as you wanted. The statutory limits on the number of plants one could grow was out the window. Worst case, if you were caught, they’d cut down plants of your choosing until you were down to the legally allowed number. Every grower was growing as much pot as he could get in the ground that summer as cuttings are cheap.

    Fields of Green

    The resulting harvest was huge. And while the left may not understand or believe it, the laws of supply and demand are iron. If supply is greater than demand, the price falls until an equilibrium is reached. And the result was The Glut. A situation where outdoor weed wholesale prices fell as low as $300 per pound. If you could find a buyer and had good enough quality weed. There were rumors of weed going as low as $100/lb but that had to have been either exaggeration or for some really ditch weed bullshit. Either way, that was the first bump in the road.

    Once the harvest was in, properly dried and cured, and finally trimmed and packaged up, we had enough product that once The Glut ended we’d be able to fund our next phase. Right where we need to be to build our indoor facility and go through the process of getting the rec license that would allow us to expand. That’s where the next bump in the road occurred. We just need to wait for The Glut to recede and the price to come back up to our floor of $800 to $1000/lb. While it would put a crimp in our timeline, waiting even six months wouldn’t be catastrophic.

    An aside; indoor and outdoor pot flower are of differing quality. Indoor is higher quality and fetches a relatively higher price. But outdoor is far cheaper to produce and the aforementioned conditions were conducive to outdoor pot production. In 2017 we had both indoor and outdoor operations.

    End Product

    My business partner was impatient to take the next steps however, so was looking to expand beyond our established channel of buyers to sell all that outdoor product. The short version is that the buyer was a scammer that my partner thought he knew but didn’t. My partner took his stepson with him to the transaction, verified the guy had a med card, and gave the stepson the cash to count, made the transaction “selling” 80% of our harvest, and the best quality at that, and they left. Only to get home and discover the money was, as he texted me, “counterfeit.” I didn’t hear from him for 3 days and when I finally got the full story I have never been closer to murder than I was at that moment.

    Turns out the money wasn’t counterfeit. It was movie money that looked just this side of monopoly money for verisimilitude. I wasn’t even mad at the scammer (whom my partner didn’t even take a picture of the guy’s med card or his license plate and only had a phone number that of course turned out to be a burner). I mean, the balls to try that and get away with it? But my partner and his idiot stepson? Yeah. Them I was furious at.

    Does that look like legal tender to you?

    Anyway.

    As of February, we had only 20% of our harvest, The Glut was finally receding, and we were at a crossroads. We came up with a last-ditch plan of selling that final amount to finance continued expansion of existing indoor med operations of high THC plants, and to get legal for growing outdoor hemp as we did have a legit buyer for hemp flower by that point for processing for CBD products. Those funds from a large hemp harvest could then be leveraged to do the build out for a rec license grow. As described in my previous article, a rec license allows a much larger size grow operation than a med license.

    Another digression: Marijuana and hemp are the same plant, save that hemp has been bred primarily for its fibers in the stalk and has only trace amounts of THC but plenty of CBDs, even in the flower. Marijuana flower contains both, and various strains have various proportions. THC is what gets you high and CBDs are the actual medicinal chemicals, especially for seizures, muscle & joint problems, pain, and anxiety. CBDs also don’t get you high and won’t, generally, show up on a piss test. Getting licensed for hemp is far less expensive than getting a rec marijuana license and you can grow as much as you like. There’s a fee for a 2-year license and you must have proof that the plants are hemp and not marijuana, and that’s it. Far easier compliance and we have enough acreage on the farm it could be quite lucrative. THC flower is usually more valuable, esp. indoor grown. But there’s potential in CBDs, especially with hemp as the input costs are way lower, the regulatory burden is lower, and the labor costs are lower offsetting the lower sales price one can get per pound.

    Unfortunately, due to the remainder being lower quality and The Glut being so epic, it took a long time to move that product. The revenue hasn’t come in fast enough to buy the hemp plants needed to get the hemp license or get them in the ground for a spring or summer crop. The flow has been a trickle; just enough to keep the lights on and pay the basic bills while expanding the amount of indoor plants we can grow up to the legal limit for the number of med cards we have. There’s an outside shot that by next spring there’ll be money for hemp. But I don’t see it.

    The result is that two months ago I washed my hands of it and told my partner that as long as he kept things legal and he paid the lease payments on time for the farm, he could keep going, but that I was done being actively involved. I started looking for a job and found one. I started that the last week of June and I’m enjoying it.

    The saving grace, from a financial perspective, is related to the legal technicalities on having a rec license and the land we purchased for the business. The land use regulations related to marijuana are somewhat convoluted. There are both county regulations and state regulations. The state regulates the maximum square footage of flower canopy one can have per rec license. It also insists that no individual or entity may have multiple licenses on the same tax lot. The county regulates the zoning for tax lots, which determines whether you can grow indoor, outdoor or both. It also sets a minimum size for a rec license. Usually 2-5 acres. Further, to obtain a rec license, one must prove water rights. If they aren’t already registered on the deed, this isn’t as simple as digging a well. One must obtain those rights through a process that takes 1-2 years.

    To give an example. If one purchases 40 acres in a county where the minimum size for a rec license is 4 acres you may not, then obtain 10 licenses from the OLCC. You can obtain one and lease out the other nine to other folks with a license. But if you want a second license you must buy another tax lot somewhere. Many of the larger operations are buying 5-10-acre plots with proper zoning building a minimum size rec grow, and then offering the rest as turnkey, then buying another parcel and repeating. That was part of our plan. But the number of parcels that are properly zoned in counties with relatively simple regulations is small. More importantly, the piece of land we bought has county water and therefore automatically has water rights.

    The land is valuable in and of itself. And the land is in my wife’s name and my name. It’s appreciated about 20% in value since we purchased it. And the company is leasing it from my wife and me. So worst case we have a valuable piece of property that has a current market value that is keeping pace with the rest of the money we invested and then some. Also, it’s a good place to go shooting whenever I want. We may even just keep it and build a country house as a retreat there.

    I learned my lesson. My next startup will be a side-hustle that I build until it replaces a significant portion of my income. I’ll have no partners, only employees, or minority ownership stakes if I need someone with special skills, but not a partner. And while I’m probably out $20-$40k counting lost income, it was worth the gamble as it was money I could afford to lose. I don’t regret taking the chance, though, and I learned a great deal about myself and managing people, and just how tough it is to start a business. I’ve always admired folks who run their own enterprise, but I do so even more now that I’ve taken a shot at it.

    End Note: I appreciate all the interest and encouragement as well as kind words. It’s helped immensely. This place really is a community.

  • On Political Extremes (And What to Do About Them)

     

    A Polarizing immigrantIt seems the word of the last two years, if not the last decade, is “polarizing.” The media runs countless stories about how polarized the country has become, with each segment of the media casting political opponents as the cause of the polarization. I do not deny that some people in our society espouse extreme or outrageous viewpoints; such is a known risk when freedom of speech and freedom of conscience make up the framework of our governing philosophy. But despite a few oddballs and whack jobs, I think we find that most people, whether conservative or progressive, hold beliefs that are not irrational. The polarization, then, comes from opponents misrepresenting the other side’s views to their own bases. So rather than finding common ground to have a dialogue we are left with hysterical screaming in defense of or against some view or another. This is my attempt to cut through some of the screaming to help each side understand the other a little better in three specific areas: immigration, education, and wealth/poverty gap.

    I read a story like this about MS-13 attracting girls to their ranks–and yes, it’s Salvadorans and not Mexicans–and the very real truth is that there are violently-minded people illegally immigrating to the United States. To deny that is naïvete at best and utter mendacity at worst. Some of these girls are driven to MS-13 or affiliated gangs because of some past trauma, but only a dyed-in-the-wool progressive would argue that assimilation to American culture radicalized them.

    Still, not every immigrant that comes to this country illegally is ready to behead someone or stab a man 153 times with fellow gang members watching and laughing. In fact, many come here in spite of the danger that illegal entry presents because the opportunities continue to be far better than what they can achieve in their countries of origin. Even the risk of deportation and a lifetime ban from re-entering the United States (which means leaving other family and even offspring behind) does not deter many who just want to provide for themselves and their families. A new documentary series on Netflix called Ugly Delicious, produced by renowned chef David Chang, explores this very issue in its second episode on tacos.

    In a similar vein, but on the topic of education instead of immigration, my wife and I were discussing some of the students in her class last week. She seems to have quite a few bad apples this year, but one girl in particular stands out. This girl failed sixth grade last year and was actually held back to repeat the sixth grade again (shocking in Chicago Public Schools!), and is now in danger of failing again. My wife says the girl’s mom has to work 2-3 jobs and crazy hours just to provide for her daughter, and the mother was in tears about what to do since she can’t be home to watch the girl do her homework every night. The girl attends a magnet school but chooses to hang out after school with kids that go to the much worse neighborhood school. Basically, the girl is a textbook case of total apathy toward education (and life in general), even with a mother who wants her to become something more.

    Many people believe education is so important that it should be provided for free to students at taxpayer expense. And I agree that education is vitally important. But progressives who demand public subsidizing of education deny the existence of students like the one in my wife’s classroom. When my wife has to focus more attention on this girl and other students who are not interested in learning, it holds back the potential of many others in the class. The “Education is a Right!” crowd would have us believe that every student has an innate desire to learn and the only thing preventing them from doing so is a lack of money or profit-seeking charter schools. (In fact, the latter may actually address the needs of apathetic students more by giving them a school to be proud of. See The Ron Clark Academy, for example.)

    I think the other side, however, plays up the apathy or entitlement a bit too much. There are plenty of students who grow up in homes where education is not valued, but with the right teacher or educational environment they could thrive. Unfortunately, our system rewards teachers based on tenure and not on merit, creating a structure that chews up and spits out young and inspiring teachers who can reinvigorate apathetic students with a passion for education. Meanwhile, thousands, tens of thousands, or even hundreds of thousands of jaded teachers clock in at 7:30 and clock out at 2:30 just so they can collect a paycheck and employee benefits that are funded by the taxpayer, and care little for the time and attention it takes to nurture a student’s desire for learning.

    With public education, most families are at a complete loss when assigning value to their kids’ education because they do not have any direct costs. On the other hand, they know how much their groceries cost; they can see how expensive refueling the car is. They even know, for the most part, how expensive a new car or cell phone is (although there are a lot of hidden fees in those contracts that can ensnare the unsuspecting buyer). But when it comes to education, people have accepted the belief that education is “free,” and therefore they assign no value to it. It’s just something one has to do, going through the motions from K-12 and beyond because society tells us its important.

    A final example of the polarizing extremes that people ascribe to their opponents comes from personal finances. One side believes that all wealth is inherited and every millionaire only got where he or she is by stepping on others. Dave Ramsey, on his national radio show, disproves this theory regularly with a segment he calls “The Millionaire Theme Hour.” He asks millionaires–those whose net worth is over one million dollars–to call in and asks a series of questions about how they obtained their wealth. Only a tiny fraction of callers received any inheritance, and for those who did it was a paltry sum from a family member who died well after they were already self-made millionaires. By and large, the secret to success is, wait for it… spending less than you make!

    The other side, however, categorizes the poor and downtrodden as lazy, dumb, or victims of divine judgment. There is a common perception that because most successful people have pulled themselves up by their bootstraps, anyone who is struggling must not be working hard enough. Although free markets and laissez faire government offer the best economic opportunity for people to rise from nothing to something, reality intrudes on that idealistic worldview in that some people just get bad breaks. Whether they are immigrants whose options are limited because of their legal status, or they come from a family of under-educated individuals, or they just have unplanned expenses continue to assault their monthly income, life has plenty of people who can’t get ahead.

    Ultimately, the solution to all of these situations–immigration, education, poverty–lies not in either of the extremes, but in looking past the collective and at the individual. A system that cares more about enabling hungry, driven, and dedicated individuals to thrive will prosper far more than one that seeks only to sustain a lower class in poverty. If we focus on providing incentives to make good decisions rather than making decisions for others, we will prosper. This means that some people will continue to make bad decisions, and we have to be okay with that. We–as individuals–can show them grace; we can show them compassion and mercy; we can even show them charity and generosity. But if we–as a society–continue to enable people to coast instead of strive to succeed, everyone suffers.

  • Life of Pie: Cost of living in Bucharest

    Some people on this fair forum want more Pie in the states, or so is my impression, and to be fair, who can blame them. Which got me a-thinkin’ maybe the pendulum swings both ways and some want to move themselves the other way. There may be some glib out there, somewhere, wanting to immigrate to good ol’ Bucharest. And said glib may want to know a thing or two about the cost of living, before jumping in. Well this is the post for that glib, and whomever else may have the curiosity.

    Kinda lost its shine

    So let’s, shall we? To start, in order to buy stuff, you need money, cash, dough. In our particular case we are talking of the mighty Leu (lion to you). Although the Leu often loses its roar in bouts of inflation (one of them legendary in the 90s), it is still our good ol’ currency. Although now we are talking about the new Leu (RON) versus the old Leu (ROL) after 4 zeroes were chopped off.

    Back in the day, the day being 1850s, it was based on the Dutch thaler , which had a lion engraved on one side – an animal which was not a heraldic symbol in our country (we were more along the lines of eagles and aurochs), hence the name. The Bulgarian currency lev also means lion.  In that particular time, the Romanian leu was 5 grams of 83.5% silver. Now the same silver cost 8.5 RON – after several times when zeros were taken from the end, that is.

    I will, in general, try to express prices in dollars, so you understand better. I will enact the labour of currency conversion, if you will. I will not enact the labour of unit conversion so, sorry, you get grams and liters and such.

    So we need Lei, yes we do. How much does an honest day’s work pay? Hard to say, Romanians always think in terms of monthly after tax salary. This is due to the fact that all the taxes are payed by the employer, and as such you only get to see your after tax. In general people negotiate their after tax salary on job interviews, called net salary round here. The average take home pay in Bucharest is 3200 RON or 850 of your inferior American dollars. A qualified engineer or programmer usually can get 2000-2500 dollars per month, and more for very good or highly specialized people. I mention this because engineers/programmers are among the best paying jobs in Romania. OK now, how far will all this get you?

    Usually salary means you pay for the fabulous government healthcare and government pension, although if you actually get sick you need some money for bribes. But I will not give healthcare costs or pension fund costs. They are not relevant in the context.

    As I know Americans to be drivers, I will start with the cost of regular gas, which is around 5.5 dollars per gallon. For non-drivers, a bus ticket is about 30 cents, a 10 trip subway pass about 5 dollars. Uber or taxi is usually 40-50 cents per kilometer.

    All Pictures shown are for illustration purpose only. Actual store may vary

    A three bedroom apartment, 1000 square foot or so, in a good area can cost 800-900 dollars a month, in an average area 400 to 500 and in a bad area 350. These are apartment in those concrete communist era brutalist apartment buildings, in new developments the prices can be 30% to 50% higher. Now that you have your apartment, let’s talk utilities. For gas the price is given, strangely, per kW-hour – not a unit of volume, and it is 30 cents. Electricity is 13 cents per kW hour. Internet for a gigabit connection, standard home connection non-guaranteed, of course, but it is usually very fast, costs 10 dollars per month. A decent cellphone package can go to 12-15 dollars a month – unlimited talk/sms and 3 to 5 GB of data.  Netflix costs 15 a month for the top package, but not everything available in the US is available here.

    Now a man/woman/otherkin must eat (I would ask the moderators to catbutt any vampire jokes at this point.) For food, I will reference the supermarket chain I do most of my shopping at. It is not the cheapest, but it is not particularly expensive either. I would add that, in a un-libertarian way I assume, I do not eat in the most cost effective fashion. This is because I do not have pantry staples and do not buy in bulk. If I did, I could go to cheaper large stores and save money, but then again I might throw away a lot more and lose some money that way. I usually buy just what I plan to cook/eat in the next day or two, so I go to a supermarket on my way from work home. I also dislike using frozen meat, so I buy all my meat fresh, which is pricier.

    So what does food cost? Depends, I assume, on what you buy. Standard eggs are 4 dollars for 30, while the cage free organic can be 3 dollars for 10. Milk is 1 dollar 30 cents per liter and 200 grams of unsalted 82% butter is two fifty, same price as 350 grams of plain cheese. Romanians eat a lot of cold cuts, which are locally called mezeluri (I assume from the Middle Eastern meze or mezze). These can range from very cheap in a “don’t ask what’s in it” way to quite pricy. Two and a half dollars can buy you 400 grams of cheap salami (42% pork meat according to the label), 4 dollars buys 70% meat salami in the same quantity, and 6 dollars buy you 300 grams of the good stuff. There is also parizer (which is meant as an equivalent to what you may know as mortadella / Bologna), which has the same things in it like the cheapest hot dogs, pink slime like substances I would think, which is a dollar for 500 grams – never touch the stuff myself. Pork hot dogs are a dollar fifty per 300 grams. And cheap yellow mustard can be had for 3 dollar 350 grams. Whole chicken is 4 dollars per kilogram; average cut of pork is the same, not too fancy cut of beef can be 8 to 12 dollars per kilogram. Bread can be between 20 cents and 2 dollars a loaf.

    Romainian poor student food: half a loaf of cheap white bread (10 cents) and 250 grams of parizer (40 cents). Eat up!
    Mmmmm pink slime and chemicals

    I think this is enough food prices, off course there are many more items, but this is to give a rough idea. Now let’s get boozing. Basic local beer can be had between 50 cents and one dollar per 500 ml can. The craft stuff it 2 to 4 dollars per 500 ml bottle. Wine starts at 2 dollars and can get to 50 and beyond. Smirnoff Red vodka is about 15 per 700 ml, Jack Daniel’s 23 per 700 ml. I don’t touch the stuff, but coca cola and similar sugary crap sodas are generally 2.5-3 dollars per a six-pack of 330 ml cans.

    What else? I am beginning to think this is enough for a general idea and the post can get too long. A good meal in a good restaurant, not cheap no too fancy, is between 20 and 30 dollars per person, including wine and service (in Romania tips are 10%), depending on one’s appetite. In a bar a beer will set you 2 to 4 dollars, a cocktail (keep in mind it is very hard to get a decent cocktail in Romania) is 4 to 6 dollars. A movie ticket is 5 to 7 dollars at a good multiplex, where the concession stand costs way too much. I think this about covers it for now and I hope this convinced you to immigrate to Romania, had you any lingering doubts.

  • A Deep Dive into Cryptocurrencies and their Operations: Part 3

    A Deep Dive into Cryptocurrencies and their Operations: Part 3

    Aight! We’ve talked about Computer Science and we’ve talked about some design features used in blockchain. Now let’s put it all together and cap this series off.

    What is blockchain? It is a linked list of data structures that uses cryptographic hashing to sign each data structure, thus including it in the canonical chain. Here’s the block used by Bitcoin (most other cryptos will have mostly the same components).

    You can see the transactions in the Block Content section, and you can see info (such as the hash of the previous block) in the Header section. Let’s relate this all together and draw a true picture of a blockchain (specifically Bitcoin) block. To do so, we’re gonna be dealing with a whole bunch of cryptographic hashes.

    Hashing: A Redux

    If you want the nitty gritty detail, you can go here. However, since we’re not writing a mining algorithm or a storefront, I’ll spare you the minutae. If you want an awesome video that explains exactly what I’m about to talk about, but in visual form? Here ya go! Want to learn more about blockchain than you ever wanted to know, but all at a layperson level? You’re welcome!

    Here’s a Bitcoin block:

    Let’s work from the bottom up.

    txns

    The payload of a Bitcoin block is an array of transactions. Each transaction looks like this:

    I show the transaction mainly to show you that it contains two things: tx_in and tx_out. This is how it works, you combine a certain number of prior transactions in the blockchain (inputs) and then dole out the coins contained in those transactions in the outputs. If the inputs go over how much you’re paying the other person, you add an output to pay yourself back the overage. It’s much like cash. Just like handing bills to the cashier and receiving change back, you hand over inputs, and receive back an output for the overage.

    Let’s do a quick example. Oscar wants to pay ZARDOZ for the Gift of the Gun, and he wants to pay $150. Oscar has previously received money from Office Manager Mohammed for “Jihad related expenses” for the amount of $110. Oscar has also previously received money from Preet Bahahahaha for “Woodchipping services” in the amount of $65. In order to pay ZARDOZ, Oscar sets up the transaction by including the previous Jihad and Woodchipping transactions as inputs, and creates two outputs: one to ZARDOZ for $150, and one back to Oscar for the remainder ($25). Then those Jihad and Woodchipping transactions are marked as fulfilled, meaning that they can’t be used again as inputs.

    txn_count

    This is fairly self explanatory. This contains the number of transactions in the block.

    nonce

    From here on up in the block, everything is contained in the header. Remember that the hash of the block is really the hash of the header. The txn and txn_count parts of the block are not used in calculating the hash. However, we’ll find out really soon why the transactions are still reflected in the block hash.

    Nonce is related to mining. I’ve alluded to the way that blocks are created, and I’ll discuss it more in the next section, but suffice it to say that the nonce is a random number and has no purpose besides in calculating the hash. The way that a block is added to the blockchain is that the block’s hash must be below a certain number. How do you get the hash below a certain number? You adjust the source data used to make the hash. Since the hash comes from the header and the nonce is in the header, you can change the nonce until the hash is below a certain number. Notice that simply changing the nonce to a lower number doesn’t guarantee that the hash is a lower number. This is where luck and random chance come into play. We’ll talk more in the next section about this.

    bits

    Bits goes with the nonce. It is the “certain number” mentioned above that the hash needs to go below for the block to be accepted.

    timestamp

    Timestamp is self explanatory. It’s the time when the block was created.

    Merkle Root

    We’ve discussed the Merkle root before, but haven’t really nailed it down. Let’s do that now. The 10,000 foot view is that the Merkle root is the hash of all of the transactions. The hash of the block (which is actually the hash of the block header) takes the Merkle root into account when calculated.

    The Merkle tree is a binary tree (each parent node has two children) that hashes from the bottom up. The bottom row of the Merkle tree contains the hashes of each transaction. The middle row hashes adjacent bottom row hashes (it’s a hash of a hash). The top row is a hash of a hash of a hash and contains information from all of the transactions. Notice what it would take to modify or replace a transaction. If STEVE SMITH tries to replace TX4 with FAKE_TX4, he has to recalculate three different hashes, as well (all of the hashes that include TX4 in them).

    Prev Hash

    This has been discussed at length in the prior two parts. This is the hash of the prior block, the link between the current block and the prior block.

    Version

    The version of the blockchain tells everybody what rules this block has been assembled under. This makes it possible to improve a blockchain without having to toss out all of the old blocks.

    Mining

    We’ve hinted at what mining is already, but now we can put all the pieces together. When transactions are posted to the blockchain network (all of the computers mining and transacting on that blockchain), they are packaged up into a block to be added to the end of the blockchain. How this happens is technical and a bit beyond this overview. Once a block is packaged up, the mining process begins. The block, sans block hash and nonce, is sent out to the network for mining. Computers that are set up as miners begin to calculate the block hash. Remember that the block hash is calculated from data that includes the Merkle root, the previous block’s hash, and the nonce. All of those pieces of data are constant except for the nonce. Therefore, miners, upon calculating the block hash, adjust the nonce to try to get the block hash to be less than the current difficulty number (represented by the bits field).

    Once a miner has calculated a block hash below the current difficulty number, they submit the hashed block to the network. If they’re the first to do so, they “win”. They end up getting a small payment of cryptocurrency for their efforts. The payment is based on an algorithm that reduces the amount of currency created for a successful mine until an end date when no more currency will be created for that coin. At that time, miners will only be compensated by transaction fees (which are currently in the tenths of a percent range).

    As you can imagine, it’s not easy to do this. Bitcoin, for example, is designed so that, on average, the winner mines the block in about 10 minutes. Given the vast amount of processing power dedicated to Bitcoin mining across the world, the chance of a single desktop computer winning even once a month is slim. In some other cryptocurrencies, it is easier, but even a second tier crypto like Monero would average one or two wins a month for a standard desktop computer. At that point, you’re probably not making enough to pay for the electricity you used.

    That’s where mining pools come in. It’s a fairly simple concept. Take a bunch of computers, let them mine as a cohesive unit, and split the winnings across members based on a pre-defined formula.

    The Big Picture of Blockchain and Different Applications

    We’ve talked about blockchain in the context of cryptos, but there are a ton of different potential applications for blockchain. The main “hot topic” for blockchain use is reputation analysis. Rather than having to go through a reputation broker (Uber, AirBnB, Yelp) to find out whether the person driving that car or renting that room or cooking that meal is trustworthy, you can reach out to the decentralized blockchain to find their reputation.

    This is a fairly simplistic application of reputation analysis, but the reason folks are excited is the application of such a thing to automation technology. What if, for example, you didn’t have to put in a reservation to get a hotel room? If your reputation is high enough and the room is available,  the lockbox automatically opens and gives you the key to the room. All you have to do is tell the system how long you plan on staying there, and you’re set.

    Another application is identity management. Does the cashier really need to see your name, address, and other personal info to know that you’re old enough to buy alcohol? There’s a whole bunch of identity leakage that sets each and every one of us up for identity theft. One proposed use of blockchain is to provide customized identity services. The cashier can query the blockchain as to whether you’re old enough to buy alcohol, but can’t access your address. Amazon can get your address, but can’t get your social security number. Starbucks can get your first name, but not your last name.

    What about securing your finances? This isn’t entirely separate from cryptocurrencies, but what if every transaction you made was from a different account? Instead of giving your bank account info or your credit card number to merchants, you give the equivalent of a Visa gift card with the exact amount of the transaction on it. If Target gets breached and your info is leaked to malevolent actors, it’s not an issue, because it points to an empty one-time account.

    Finally, the application that I think would be the most interesting. Traffic management via blockchain. As automated cars become a more likely reality, most of the traffic management interaction methods that have been designed to be centralized or distributed in nature. A decentralized traffic management system would reduce the efficacy of government meddling and the potential for an enforced monopoly a la internet service provider.

    Cryptocurrencies

    I’m not going to list out all the cryptocurrencies in detail. I trust y’all to DDG it yourselves. Let me just point out a few of the big ones in passing.

    Bitcoin – The original and most famous. There is relatively little anonymity in using Bitcoin, as shown by the Silk Road FBI takedown.  It’s also relatively slow to get new blocks integrated, at an average of 10 minutes per block.

    Bitcoin Cash – A fork of Bitcoin meant to scale to more users a bit easier by making the blocks bigger.

    LiteCoin – Billed as “silver to Bitcoin’s gold”. It generates blocks 4x faster (2.5 minutes per block), will generate more coins than BitCoin, and some different internal algorithms.

    Ethereum – Ethereum is much more than a cryptocurrency. It creates smart contracts that can take advantage of automation. Want to unlock your guestroom when somebody has enough reputation points? Ethereum is probably the best blockchain to start from to do this sort of thing.

    Monero – Billed as the “secure cryptocurrency,” it is designed slightly differently from BitCoin so that bad actors (like the FBI) can’t trace one transaction back and see your entire transaction history. Secure is a relative term, because, as seen in the Silk Road incident, there are weaknesses wherever you have to give personal info (shipping, currency conversion)

    Drawbacks and Limitations

    This could be an article in and of itself, but I’ll just hit a few that are top of mind.

    1. Blockchain length – The immense size of the Bitcoin (and other large cryptos’) blockchain means that you either need to rely on somebody else’s node to get plugged in (by using an exchange) or you need to wait a few days for all of the blocks to be downloaded.
    2. Block acceptance time – In Bitcoin, it takes an average of 10 minutes for your transaction to be included in an accepted block, and due to forks (when two different blocks are accepted in two different parts of the network), folks recommend waiting an hour before declaring the transaction “completed.” That obviously doesn’t work for somebody trying to walk out the checkout line at the supermarket.
    3. Scalability – This is kinda wrapped up in the last two, but the number of transactions in a block are limited by a maximum size. Therefore, as more and more transactions occur, the chance of your transaction making the first block goes down substantially. Then, you have to wait not only 10 minutes for your block to be mined, but you have to wait an unknown amount of time until your transaction is included in a mined block. This is where transaction fees come into play. When there are 50,000 transactions, which ones are you going to try to make into a block as a miner? The ones that pay the best, of course.
    4. Security – We’ve discussed some security concerns already, but blockchain doesn’t resolve the single biggest threat in online transactions: the other party in the transaction retaining and ultimately misappropriating your personal information.

     

    I hope this series was helpful to y’all! I’ve certainly learned a ton!