Glibertarians.com 2018 Archive

Author: mexican sharpshooter

  • Fall BIF Special

    Once again our Beer it Forward (BIF) QB (Nephilium) did us all a solid and set up another BIF in honor of the change of season.  Okay, maybe it has to do with bottles exploding in the winter so if we were going to do it, we’ll have to do it now.

    I do plan on running reviews from other Glibs in the near future, once we can confirm everyone gets their beer.  FOr now, you will just have to deal with me talking about mine.  First up, what did I sent to Hyperion The Hyperbole?  That’s a good question–a damn good question…well:

    You can see a few that might be familiar, others that you haven’t seen.  If The Hyperbole want to chime in and tell my how much of an asshole I am for conflating him with Hyperion good guy I am, I’ll let him tell you what he thinks.

    As for what I received (H/T Trials and Trippelations):

    These come with a bit of backstory.  One thing I noticed when I was stationed in the south is they all had, what I considered to be, screwy liquor laws.  There were dry Sundays and the like but one that stands out, and likely keeps a lot of craft brewers down is a self distribution law they are lobbying to repeal:

    For the second time in as many years, a 20-year-old “secret agreement” between Anheuser-Busch and a North Carolina wholesaler is being highlighted as a key piece of evidence as Tar Heel State brewers look to change a decades-old distribution law. The document, first reported last year by NC media, is part of a franchise agreement between AB and Raleigh-based R. A. Jeffreys that encouraged the distributor to give priority to Anheuser-Busch products above others, which itself would be illegal under a 1989 state law, says a lawyer representing North Carolina breweries suing the state.

    According to the Charlotte Business Journal, ABC Commission Administrator Bob Hamilton agreed in the assessment. Last year, distributors noted that “the kind of favoritism suggested in the 1997 franchise agreement is barred by a 2012 state law involving franchisers,” according to the Charlotte Observer.

    It all surrounds an ongoing fight to overturn a state law that prohibits self-distribution when a business surpasses 25,000 barrels of production. Two Charlotte-area breweries, NoDa Brewing and Olde Mecklenburg, have helped lead the legal battle for their in-state peers.

    Which is something I is something I was surprised to learn Arizona once did, until recently.  They may be wrong, but at least they fixed it, right?  Many have issues with the InBev distribution deals, but I am ambivalent about it.  On one hand it means InBev is fully aware of its inferior product but banks on it’s ability to distribute, and on the other hand it allows a smaller player to quickly gain a bigger footprint.  InBev is not making the beer, and they are not making other brewers change their product.  If they did, it wouldn’t sell.  In the end both sides win, that’s how the market works.

    So I picked up my package and was informed by T&T it arrived during the last week of October.  Which was good timing because I was out of beer and the World Series was on at the time.  The artwork on a few of them as you can tell is much nicer than what I am used to here.  There are three IPAs in the package and I drank all of them over the course of the marathon 8 hour game that I totally shouldn’t have stayed up for.  But I am a petty sports fan and mainly wanted to see the Dodger loose, so I was disappointed that night.  The three IPAs are all in the solid 3-4 range:

    • Burial Brewery Asheville, NC  Surf Wax IPA  3.1/5
    • Catawba Brewery Asheville, NC Hopness Monster IPA 3.5/5  (SEA SMITH APPROVED)
    • NoDa Brewing Charlotte, NC  Hop Drop and Roll IPA 3.5/5

    My beef with IPA is how many of them often taste the same.  Your mileage may vary.  As for the others:

    • Durty Bull Durham, NC Lager .  They get extra points because Bull Durham is one of my favorite movies.  3.8/5
    • Southern Pines Brewing Southern Pines, NC Malty by Nature Scottish Export Ale.  Reminds me of Kiltlifter, in a good way.  3.5/5
    • Holy City Brewing Charleston, SC  Pluff Mud Porter.  Charleston is an awesome city and if you have never been there, you are wrong.  This is a nice balance between dark malty beer, while keeping it light.  I feel like I can drink dozens of these.  3.8/5
    • Ponysaurus Durham, NC Rye Pale Ale.  Definitely my pick of this bunch as I have mentioned my affinity for the use of Rye in beverage making.  Take that German MEDIEVAL.TOP.MEN. 4.0/5

    Specials thanks to Trials and Trippelations for the awesome beer, and Nephilium for putting this on!

  • Everybody here is uninvited

    Today I wanted to talk about a local news story.  I thought it would be nice to cover a local story.  No story here is too local.

    This is my review of Deschutes The Abyss 2017 Release  (H/T:  Riven)

    This story starts when a boy from Tucson turned 6 years old.  He wanted to throw a party, and his mom thought it would be nice. The problem?  Nobody showed up so she did the sensible thing and shamed everyone invited on social media.  No seriously.*

    RANT ON

    I am not going to put a caption here to make fun of a child. BUT I WILL NOT STOP YOU FROM MAKING FUN OF A CHILD

    – My first problem with this:

    The reason the entire class was shamed on social media is because the entire class was invited.  Now this is a practice I encountered and I don’t particularly care for it.  It forces parents to invite children their child doesn’t like to parties because it may hurt the uninvited child’s feelings.  Okay, fine.  So I have to invite the snowflakes too.  Here’s an issue I had–planning around the idea that 30 kids will be attending this party meant financially allocating funds for a 30 person party.  Granted only 10 showed, after they RSVP.  If my kid wants to invite other people in his or her class to a party, everyone in the class must be invited.  Including the smelly one.

    I thought part of the reason we have schools is social immersion?  Lets be real, that’s what most people got out of school, it certainly wasn’t reading.  By doing this, it eliminates the possibility that a child can grow up knowing there are people out there they won’t get along with, or how to deal with these people.  After all, if you don’t want somebody’s company you don’t invite them over.  For a parent of a child that has few friends, this might seem challenging but I found a way around this by inviting a few relatives that had kids of their own.

    Otherwise if nobody wants to be around you, eventually you figure it out.  It makes you wonder if people act the way they do today is the result of poor adjustment to social interactions.  Say what you want about social media, but perhaps another issue is nobody ever learned to handle things like confrontation, dissapointment, or failure. When encountered by such things they simply resort to their lowest level of social training.

    – My other problem with this:

    Another problem I have with this is the kid’s mother went and posted this to social media.  Really Lady?  Your kid is having a terrible day, so lets take a picture and show the entire world how much you think other people suck.  Immortalize it forever.  Let me ask a question, is there perhaps a reason nobody showed up?  Perhaps the class is mostly girls and had no interest in going to a boy’s party?  Perhaps enough people in the class got sick and stayed home?  Perhaps your kid is the smelly kid?  Perhaps coddling your child is not going to do him any good once you are no longer there to protect him from the world?  Am I going to hear from Andrew Napolitano for imitating his writing style?

    “Hey everyone.  Check out how much this kid’s mom thinks he’s a loser.”  I am sorry, but that’s what I got out of your post.

    – The silver lining:

    If there is a winner in all of this, its the Phoenix Suns.  Yes, I know they suck but lets be real, they aren’t going to get too many real wins.  Somebody affiliated with the team saw this, pulled a few strings, and got the kid courtside tickets–to the Suns vs. Lakers game.  Pretty nice of them considering somebody would have paid real money for courtside seats to see LeBron play.

    RANT END

    So how is this beer?  I gotta hand it to them, I didn’t think tequila would go well with an imperial stout, but I admit I am wrong.  Tequila you see, is not aged nearly as long as whiskey (Anejo is only aged 1-2 years) so it doesn’t take on the properties of the oak barrel like whiskey.  This beer is more “woody” rather than “whiskey soaked.”  The stout is neutral, without overpowering chocolate or coffee notes.  Standard dry Irish style.  Good luck finding it.  Deschutes The Abyss 2017 Release: 4.2/5

    *The possibility of this story being a hoax was pointed out by the stellar editing staff at Glibertarians.com.  Should this be a hoax, it does not improve my opinion of these people.  Not only would they be liars, they got free courtside tickets to the Suns game and thus were rewarded for lying.  Screw that.

  • Liquid Smoke

    While I was doing my shopping for the latest Glibertarian Beer it Forward I found something fun in the import section.

    This is my review of Brauerei Heller — however you pronounce this:

    The bottom line with this beer is that it is a German style known as a Rauchbier.  A Rauchbier is a style best known for the malts being smoked.  There is no definitive style, as nearly any German style beer can be smoked, it just depends on what you happen to like.  That day, I picked the Bock.  The style is said to have originated in the city of Bamberg where the cloisters at the local cathedral caught fire, as they were apparently wont to do.  This fire ravaged throughout the city and was eventually put out, but not before the effects of the smoke took affect to the local breweries.  They breweries themselves did not burn down but many of their ingredients were smoked, and they didn’t realize it at the time.  Turns out people liked it, thus Rauchbier is a thing.

    This Cathedral, I guess its cool and all….

    When I tried to verify if this story is true, I came up a bit short.  The best I could to was verify the cathedral does exist, and it did burn down around the time the origin story takes place.

    The cathedral is cool and all, but to be honest there really wasn’t anything there that pops out.  Let’s instead talk about the Orloj, or  sometimes known as the Prague Astronomical Clock.  It has an interesting history if you are in to that sort of thing.  What really stands out is the city councils reaction to such a mechanical wonder.

    Upon its completion in 1493, the updated Orloj was undoubtedly the envy of the world, and the Prague city council agreed that Hanuš had fulfilled his promise to the city. In fact, many in the council argued the master had fulfilled it too well—after all, if Hanuš could create such a marvel for the people of Prague, what was to stop him from creating an equally impressive or better work for a rival? In secret, a rogue group of councilmen met to discuss ways of preventing such a loss of prestige for the city. The plan was set into action the day of Hanuš’ payment. Shortly after receiving his gold, the master was waved into an antechamber, held down, and his eyes were burned out with a red-hot iron poker. The newly blinded Hanuš was rightfully furious, and local legend says he retaliated in two ways. Firstly, he laid a curse upon the city of Prague—whenever the Orloj stopped working, the city would suffer horrible misfortune. Secondly, and more accurately, Hanuš sent an apprentice into the tower at night and had the man smash the inner workings of the movement. Prague’s new crown jewel had been broken, and Hanuš’ designs were so far ahead of their time that no one could repair the clock until 1552.

    Too bad Hanuš was wrong again, as they stopped the clock for restoration recently.  You have to admit it is cool.

    So the moral of the story is…don’t build things for the government?

    How is the beer?  it will be polarizing, because as it turns out it really is smoky.  Many craft brewers will take this style and compare it to bacon, and market it as a bacon flavored beer (i.e. Rogue VooDoo Maple Donut).  In a way it does remind me of bacon to some degree.  Otherwise it adds a unusual complexity to what is otherwise, a competently made beer.  Brauerei Heller — however you pronounce this: 3.5/5 

  • ¿El Jueves por la Noche? ¿Mañana de Viernes? ¡Enlaces Mexicanos!

    Buenos Dias!  Okay how does Sloopy normally do this….

    The Texans won!

    So the news today…Legions of third world barbarians are gathering in large number around the US/Mexico border—but enough about LA Dodger fans.  Game 3 of the World Series starts tonight at 1700 hours (Arizona Time).  

    Speaking of caravans, they’re going to walk right into a Category 4 hurricane.  Nice timing.

    A ICE detention facility in Phoenix reaches max capacity.  So ICE does the sensible thing and lets them out.  Thanks ICE!

    Good news for Brett!  It seems Columbia has a record harvest for coca, the primary plant used to make cocaine.

    Here in America, we’re used to being lectured by musicians on the proper way to think.  That may not fly well in Brazil.

    However, many Brazilians resent outsiders interfering in their politics. Humberto Miranda is 54 and plans to vote for Bolsonaro. He acknowledges Waters is a political activist who campaigns on many fronts, but thinks that in Brazil, the musician should be wary of broadcasting his opinions.

    I swear everything is marching hammers to this guy.

    Last but not least…man who won’t go away yells at us on CNN.  John, let me break it to you gently:  nobody gives a rats ass what you think.

    Sad news for this band, their guitar player found dead.  I am rather fond of his work.  Here’s a tune to help you kick Friday’s ass!

  • A good book, a beer, and a quiet afternoon. — Part 2

    For part deux of this review I decided to go for a beer that is significantly less awful than Honey Brown.  Given that everybody here loves pumpkin ales, I found a doozy.

    This is my review of Grand Canyon Brewery  Will o the Wisp Bourbon Barrel-Aged Imperial Pumpkin Ale.

    Part 1 discussed some of the biases within the data that are making polls less reliable.  Today I will touch on parts of the book that discuss methods professional pollsters use to account for these biases, and their drawbacks.  This is the second part of the book.  The first thing Wood points out is how the public at large misinterprets polls to begin with.  Most people hear about polls through the media, who among other things, have a penchant for oversimplifying.  It is because of the way the polls are presented that most people do not realize the confidence level the pollsters have in the poll results, or even how the margin of error works.

    This factor makes it hard to definitively state that findings are wrong; more often, they are presented as simply imprecise. Probability samples using the standard 95% confidence level generally have a margin of error roughly equal to the inverse of the square root of the sample size.48 The confidence level tells us how sure we are that the true average lies within the margin of error.

    […]

    If in our above example with a simple random sample of 836 registered voters wherein 45% state they will vote for candidate A, assuming there are only two candidates in the race and nobody claims not to know whom they support such that the other 55% state they will vote for candidate B, the real margin of error for that poll at a 95% confidence level is 6.8%. While this poll would report candidate B with a 10-point margin over candidate A, in reality this poll states with 95% confidence that candidate B’s lead over candidate A will be between about 3 and 17 points.

    In closer races, this means election polls can claim to be accurate while having next to no predictive power. If in our example, the candidates instead polled at 48% and 52%, the candidate supported by 48% may actually have a lead of nearly 3 points.

    This of course means the races could have been within the margin of error the entire time, within the confidence levels, and still come out with the “unexpected” result and the majority of the public would be none the wiser.  Unexpected results as we have seen in recent events, have been met with shall we say, less than heroic reaction.

    A way professional polls will account for some the self-selection and sampling biases is by weighing the results.

    By its nature, weighting entails a lot of assumptions which do not necessarily hold up to scrutiny. It embeds the presumption that researchers somehow know the actual proportion of various groups within the study population such that deviations from those proportions within the sample can be detected. It also presupposes that each group behaves as a block with identical characteristics, rather than as individuals. This could be described as a form of scientific stereotyping, since it suggests that individuals have behaviors identical to the groups to which researchers have assigned them.

    […]

    Let’s say the researchers who sampled ten people to determine their favorite colors ran the study again with a new random sample pulled from the same population. This time, a sample of 8 people are selected instead of 10. When this group is surveyed, the results are substantially different from the first group: four respondents pick green as a favorite color, one chooses red, and another three select blue. When looking at the sex of the respondents, the researchers notice that seven of the eight in this sample were male, with only one female.

    […]

    The findings from this second study and those from the first are both equally considered valid. However, the first study made it appear that green and red were the only colors preferred by the population. Due to sampling and weighting errors, it completely missed the fact that blue is also a common preference for some. Additionally, in the second sample, a single data point was used to represent the entire population block of females. A larger sample would have reduced the magnitude of this error, but this example shows how weighting can misrepresent the data and increase error while theoretically accounting for sampling bias in both cases. Weighting trades precision in the hopes of increasing accuracy, yet it can actually detract from both.

    All Mexicans with libertarian politics like beer.  We can say that, because you all have me as that single data point.

    Further into the book, a third section begins to present potential solutions towards obtaining more accurate, and precise poll results.  The first seems obvious:

    Questions are inherently subjective because they must be interpreted by the person answering the question. Researchers require objective, quantified data rather than a collection of individual interpretations. While some question formats may appear to make quantification possible, such as a “For/Against” question, no two responses are truly comparable when individuals are responding to questions with their own subjective interpretations of the question’s meaning. The same core concept, that different people must answer the same question for the data collected to be comparable, is behind the importance of using identical wording when asking the same question at different points in time to measure changes between the two periods.19 However, because every individual has a different understanding of any given word’s definition, the folly of asking questions at all becomes apparent.

    Definitions are probably the most difficult thing to define between individuals with dissimilar viewpoints.  Lets pick on the statement, “everyone has the right to free healthcare.”  What is a right?  What is free?   Healthcare in of itself is not a right, but a commodity.  We can probably give the pollster the benefit of the doubt and think perhaps they mean access to healthcare, which in of itself may not be a right either, but not something anybody is necessarily going to deny…..Wait, what in the hell do you mean for free!?

    One can see how such obvious differences in opinions can lead to differences in how one answers qualitative questions like this.

    A potential solution is by using social media algorithms to continuously take in information on the user, and by accounting for self selection biases by measuring sentiment amongst a like minded people.  This is not without other issues.

    In doing, so these platforms are collecting data that are inherently subject to multiple biases,including social desirability bias. Social media posts are often directly tied to one’s identity, so making taboo statements or posting certain perspectives may have ramifications. Therefore, individuals using social media have incentives to portray themselves in a specific way based on the perceived preferences of their chosen social circles.

    […]

    As far as samples drawn from social media populations themselves go, there is a fair amount of self-selection bias at work which is closely related to the social desirability bias contained within the data. Many individuals, even those who nominally use a given public or semi-public platform, will react to perceptions of facing social disapproval for their beliefs or group membership by simply opting not to make statements at all, effectively withdrawing from such platforms. Some views are consequentially likely to be proportionally misrepresented. As Anne Halsall, co-founder and CPO of the company Winnie, noted, “Online representations of self must be carefully designed and maintained; a well- cultivated social media account has taken the place of the well-manicured lawn in signaling wealth, status, and general got-it-togetherness to peers.”39

    Indeed.  My social media accounts all include pictures of me wearing a fitted suit, and generally have little controversial content posted.  Why? Perhaps I like to think of myself as an adult, and present myself as such.

    The strength of large, properly collected datasets can allow for active proportional sampling. A large dataset may not itself be perfectly representative of a given population, but it is likely to contain representative samples of any given population. Once such a dataset has been assembled, the proper sample for a particular study need only be identified from within that broader dataset.

    […]

    In cases where specific representation is necessary, researchers can repeatedly randomly sample an existing large set of data until certain parameters are met and study that sample. Since the data has already been collected and researchers in this scenario are only conducting sampling to determine which data to pull, rather than who to attempt to reach, results can be synthesized without worrying about sampling bias, self-selection bias, or the increased error associated with traditional sample adjustment methods. This sample can even be tagged and repeatedly referenced in the future to examine change over time. It can also be isolated from the larger dataset before again running the sampling process until the same parameters are met in a new sample without using the initial sample group, in order to conduct verification checks.

    I am going have to go ahead and disagree here.  While I accept that virtue signaling is a thing, and one that is not going away anytime soon.  There are a number of ways I avoid giving information about myself on the internet.  I use as few Google products as possible, along with other no brainers like using a pen-name.  Plus when I go on Facebook I will screw with the ad-bot by listing any and all political ads as hate-speech, and saying that NowThis news is sexually explicit.  I get ads like this now…

     

    Whatever the results of the election in two weeks, because of this book I am more interested in seeing how the results of poll predictions play out.  I have an itchy feeling in some places, they will be dead on, and in others….well…

    This is not a beer for the faint of heart.  It is a level of insanity that most of you will happily accept, given you are receiving it as a gift.  This falls in the “overdone, gluten-free dunkel” category.  The bourbon is rather overpowering, but it goes well with the pumpkin since most of us associate it with sweetness, except it does not taste at all like pumpkin pie.  It is one to savor the complex palate for a long time.  So if you show up to chug it, you are going to have bad time.   Grand Canyon Brewery  Will o the Wisp Bourbon Barrel aged imperial Pumpkin Ale 4.8/5

    As for the book, it is now available on Kindle…unfortunately it may no longer available gratis, but I highly recommend it!

  • A good book, a beer, and a quiet afternoon.

    Ever get a call from number you don’t recognize?  Ever make the mistake of answering it? I know I have.

    Recently, the people that own and operate the site were given the rare opportunity to preview an advance copy of a book!  Being that that the subject was something that is going to be a highly relevant topic upon its release date, I took the bait.  My issue however is that I was unsure how to approach such an article. I will say upfront this is well researched, all the arguments made in the book flow logically, and are diligently cited by respected academic sources.  Do I do this right and feature a worthy beer, or do I do this right and generate as much interest as possible? In the spirit of the book’s subject, I decided to review the comment total as a proxy for the interest in my past articles and determined Glibs are much more interested when I drink something terrible.

    This is my review of Honey Brown

    The book is titled Data in Decline by Steve A. Wood

    Given the recent headlines going from predicting blue waves, crimson rushes, brutal mobs, silent majorities, et cetera, all coupled with standard internet tough guy talk between all sides, it seems all too timely in its release.  Everyone in the media are driving narratives based on polls, that suggest national or local political sentiment. The problem of course is in several recent elections the polls were wrong, most notably the 2016 Presidential Election.  We can speculate how these broken polls affected current political discourse, given that both sides insist they are in the majority thus agendas should fit accordingly and the other side can just shut up. The truth is we really don’t know because there is no reliable way of determining that outside of election day, and quite frankly even then it shouldn’t matter because our system of government is designed to respect the opinions of the minority.

    Still, there must be a better way of performing these polls, but not until first identifying what is going wrong with present methodology.  Because of the complexity of the subject at hand this is not a book that should be reviewed in a single article. Today the excerpts I am going to focus on are internal biases that arguably drive poor polling results.  

    A cliche that comes up in discussions in right of center circles about polls is that nobody in the comment section claims to ever be contacted by a poll.  Personally, I have—on multiple occasions—during the campaign season of nearly every election since I was old enough to vote. The only respite was 2008, but I was in Middle East at the time.  I will let everyone here speculate as to why they keep calling me but sampling biases are always a cited reason. An interesting thing Wood points out, is it may not be the biases of the pollers rather than the pollee being revealed.

    Canvassing also creates both a self-selection bias for the simple fact that people don’t often like stopping to talk to people on the street. A canvasser’s cause is generally readily apparent, so individuals with a particular interest in a given subject are thus far more likely to stop and talk to the canvasser. In contrast, others may project their negative biases onto the canvasser and deliberately ignore them as a result. While this can help researchers reach certain quotas, it skews the perceived level of support because little information is gathered from those with less substantial interest in the subject matter.

    In the last few weeks I was contacted four separate times by somebody working for a campaign, all of whom were looking for information from me along with gauging my interest in voting.  For those interested in knowing: yes, all were from Democrat campaigns. Two attempts were from actual volunteers that came to my door.  While I do not believe I am an intentionally sour person to speak with, it is something I have been accused of in the past.  I made no attempt at hiding my distaste for their being at my door from while maintaining as polite a tone as possible.  At least that is my side of the story—it is not like I pulled a gun, or that they can prove in court I wasn’t under duress at the time.

    One simply wanted me to register to vote in the Democrat primary.  The conversation took about 3 minutes in spite of my having to explain that not being a Republican does not make me a Democrat.  The other actually did ask me what issue I cared about the most, and instead of the standard Glib retort (gay, pot-smoking Mexicans) I asked if he had a list on the tablet he was carrying; I thought it would help reveal who he worked for.  The canned response, “not trusting republicans in power,” with no analogue for the other side suggested who was paying this volunteer.  In the end my only response was, “the economy.”  He then left me alone.

    I continued further into the book where Wood discusses potential reasons why the polling data itself may be subject to sampling bias.  He provides thoughtful suggestions why this is the case, and presents examples with citations to corroborate his claims. Such as:

    If strongly partisan Democrats are far more likely to respond to an opinion poll than strongly partisan Republicans—which is arguably the case since these same polls indicate 52% of strong Democrats trust polls compared to 27% of strong Republicans14—the results of those polls are likely to contain bias. The effect is comparable to Literary Digest’s oversampling of Republicans in 1936 by drawing respondents from populations made up of voters who tended to be more Republican than the overall electorate.

    That this disparate impact comes at the same time as the rise in narrowcast media, which allows individuals to curate and filter which information makes its way into their consciousness, makes obtaining participatory buy-in from study population members much more difficult than it has been in the past. People are becoming far more accustomed to actively filtering what information they take in. Everything from ad blockers to phone call filters have allowed confirmation bias, “the seeking or interpreting of evidence in ways that are partial to existing beliefs,”15 to flourish in our daily lives.

    True.  We all live in a bubble of our own creation.  Don’t think you live in a bubble?  Guess what this website is.  If past discussions here and other dark corners of the internet are indicative of the overall sentiment to polling is they are as trustworthy or more appropriately, untrustworthy as the media outlet reporting it.   Its to the point others will simply cite betting odds in Europe as more trustworthy or even use crude methods to neutralize the bias in the data (i.e. just add 5 points to the Republican’s result).

    Another example cited as a reason the data is subject to bias:

    Facebook defines advertising fatigue as “[w]hen everyone in your target audience has already seen your ad many times, it becomes more expensive to achieve desirable results.”35 More broadly, over-tasking human awareness with frequent interruptions and distractions substantially reduces peoples’ overall functionality;36 populations which have been inundated for extended periods are already operating at a base capacity of 60% at best.37 As audiences become saturated with ads, it becomes increasingly expensive and difficult to reach them, capture their focus, and engage them by any means.

    Indeed, I ignore things on my screen as I tire of reading it.  It certainly helps that many web pages all put the ads in the same place which is allows for more efficiency in ignoring.  These ads sometimes lead to a survey.  This is not the only bias that suggests the only people responding to a poll are people that actually want to respond.

    Although the Bradley Effect has largely been written off by social scientists, the term has evolved to essentially cover all cases in which respondents lie or otherwise deliberately provide false data to pollsters. The concept continues to live on because the general principle of survey respondents misinforming interviewers has seemingly manifested in other forms.

    The Shy Tory Factor is one of those manifestations, one which focuses on political parties and philosophies in general rather than specific individuals. This phenomenon was first discovered in Great Britain, where it was found that Conservative voters may refuse to answer pollsters honestly, indicating that they supported the Tory party less than they did. This effect has also been found to understate support for the Republican Party in the United States.66

    […]

    However, due to the already questionable nature of polls, it is possible that the Shy Tory Factor as it is observed is in truth a manifestation of compounded sampling bias and self-selection bias.67 This is difficult to reconcile with the fact that the effect seems to be more pronounced in surveys where the respondents have higher levels of personal contact with the research team, but is worth considering.68

    Sounds like there is a some level of truth to the theory that in 2016 people were not willing to tell somebody outside their inner circle they supported Donald Trump. To be perfectly fair, I only mention this because it does confirm my own biases.

    If there are so many problems within the polling data that seem so obvious once it is spelled out logically like this, why has there not been any drive to update polling methods?

    Just as politicians can suffer from record low approval ratings yet are continually re-elected, pollsters’ clients keep committing themselves to the same groups and practices which have increasingly failed in the first decades of the 21st century. Congressional representatives and senators who keep their jobs despite their track records have about as much of a reason to change as researchers who keep their jobs despite theirs.

    Right.  There is no incentive in changing anything if the desired result of staying in power continues to be achieved.

     

    Data in Decline, by Steve A. Wood will be made available on Kindle on 15 October 2018.  Stay tuned next week for part two where I will provide more excerpts that discuss the problems professional polls encounter when accounting for sampling biases, and their failure to address them.

    As for the beer…Honey Brown is terrible. It tastes like adult onset diabetes in a can, and I cannot in good conscience recommend it.  I would almost rather have purchased another Earthquake in its stead. Almost. Honey Brown: 1.8/5.

  • 7 Costume Suggestions for the Sharp Dressed Orphan

    Once again, I am going to search the comments and distill the ones most likely to be an effective writing prompt.

    Which upon the dreaded realization that at the time it was August and they already had pumpkin beers out, you can probably appreciate my self-control for waiting until October to actually put this out for general consumption.

    This is my review of Southern Tier Pumking Imperial Pumpkin Ale. H/T Bob Boberson

    Of course, this also means that there were number of others things about October that people have little self-control in talking about—namely Halloween. Which means today we are going to discuss the top 7 libertarian Halloween costumes, because 7 makes sense.

    #7 (slutty) Rape Apologist

    This one is actually pretty easy to complete. Just dress up as a lawyer if you happen to be a unicorn female–bonus points for showing a little leg. If you happen to be a libertarian male, just wear what you are wearing anyway, and leave your pants open.  The key for both is to simply demand hard evidence for everything, and in every conversation. For example, did somebody spike the punch? Demand evidence that it was spiked, or that there was even any punch to begin with.

    #6 Rick Sanchez

    I don’t know why Rick is libertarian, to be honest. I never watched the show, but I am willing to entertain any arguments as to why or why not.

    #5 (slutty) Gender-Fluid Handmaidens Tale

    Again, this is also a simple to costume to create. Get a red smock, a bonnet and grow a beard. Once again, bonus points for showing more leg than required.

    #4 (Slutty and/or Gender-fluid) Ayn Rand

    Objectively, this costume is superior to all the others, because it allows for a level of morality…okay I can’t do it. If you have the stomach for it, I WANT TO SEE IT.  The downside, is everybody asking you why you are dressed like a peasant lady.

    #3 Kochtopus

    Amazon has plenty of octopus costumes for which you can wear, add top hat and monocle accordingly. However, you can take it to the next level by creating this lovely top hat with tentacles sticking out of the top. Simply add a monocle, some body paint, and you are golden.

    Things will get real ugly

    #2 Walt (Gran Torino)

    Halloween means a bunch of kids are going to be running around your lawn; there is only one effective way to keep them off your lawn and that is a M-1 Garand from your days in Korea and explaining it to them you wish for them to get off your lawn. If you prefer to chase them down, a Colt M1911 A-1 to the face after tackling those damn kids, will also do the trick.

     

    #1 Zombie John McCain

    Too soon?

    My friends, BRAAAAAAIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIINS!

    Its never too soon, Cowboy.

    So is this beer any good? You will not like it if you are not down with pumpkin ales. I however, happen to enjoy and appreciate the history behind the pumpkin ale therefore I will likely purchase this one again. This one is intense in its alcohol content and does not apologize for anything, just like all of these costume ideas. I give Southern Tier Pumpking Imperial Pumpkin Ale a solid 4.5/5.

     

     

  • Smoke em if you got em.

    I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again:  there are times I draw inspiration from the audience.  This time around…..

    …so this is my review of Cigar City Maduro Brown Ale. H/T Ed Wuncler

    No, this is not a bizarre reference to our favorite South American dictator.  Maduro is a reference to a style of cigar wrapper.

    Let’s take a step back.  There are three parts to a cigar:  the filler, the binder and the wrapper.  Each comes from a different part of the plant, and when done correctly will blend together to form what many argue is the perfect companion to a glass of Scotch.  On a handmade cigar the filler is made from long leaf; oily in texture and slow burning. The binder is somewhat loose and its purpose is to serve exactly as the name implies.  The wrapper on the other hand is made from the silky leaves on the bottom of the plant, shaded from the sun and providing the subtle texture against the lips and much of the flavor.  

    There are many kinds of wrappers, some are natural, some are darker and some even claim to be grown in Connecticut.  For our purposes, a Maduro wrapper comes from the same part of the plant only left to ferment for longer periods of time until the leaf turns a deep brown.  Some will take it to another level called Oscuro, but this adds a lot of cost and in the past has led me to clearing out a smoke pit. Maduro wrappers add a nice complexity to the smoke; often giving hints of chocolate and spiciness.  Being that I happen to like darker beer than light, it should come as no surprise that a cigar with a Maduro wrapper is right up my alley.

    Steady…
    See? Nice and easy.

    To smoke a cigar, you need to cut the cap clean and plum.  Many use a device that simply punches a hole into the cap, others will cut a slit into it, but the more popular way to do it is with a guillotine style cutter.  If you have a sharp blade and a steady hand however…

    A crooked cut will cause an uneven burn which does affect the smoke characteristics, not to mention make you look like a noob.  If you’re going to roll with it my way go slow, and know the cap is paper thin, and held together with a mild adhesive. Nice and easy.

    Do not use a lighter, unless you are in a pinch and even then if you are in a pinch why are you smoking?  Use a wooden match. Yes, it does make a difference. By the way, Ed…this was good, very good. We can hang out.  

    Now I didn’t drink the beer with the cigar, before anyone asks.  This one is quite robust with the malts but also does have a bit of hops to balance it, therefore it is not a proper Scotch Ale.  Like the other from this brewery I tried, and reviewed it is well made and one I can recommend. Cigar City Maduro Brown Ale 3.8/5.

  • ¡Domingo enlaces Mexicanos!

    Buenos noches Glibs!  Tonight, I am the only one left sober.  Which I guess is okay because at least in Latin America there is something else to talk about besides allegations of grab ass at a party in the 80s.

    Speaking of grab ass–Somebody at CNN pointed out there are technically two Popes, and I assume both would rather tell me I’m going to the hell of my own creation over my antipathy over climate change.

    Los partidarios de ambos papas analizan su silencio en términos espirituales, formas de disciplina y fe en que la verdad se revelará, eventualmente. Otros dicen que Benedicto y Francisco son reacios a caer en una pelea de lodo con un exempleado. Algunos se preguntan si también pueden estar en juego estrategias más mundanas, como la autopreservación.

    _____

    The supporters of both popes analyze their silence in spiritual terms, forms of discipline and faith in which the truth will be revealed, eventually. Others say that Benedict and Francisco are reluctant to fall into a mud fight with a former employee. Some wonder if more mundane strategies, such as self-preservation, may also be at play.

    You think?

    Food prices are going up in Argentina, by 33% compared to last year.  There is one reason in particular that come to mind, however it doesn’t appear to be mentioned in the article.  *cough* socialismo *cough*

    At least they do compare to a few neighboring countries, a few of which might have a few differences that jump right out.

    En su último informe, de junio de 2017 con datos de abril a mayo, Argentina era el país de América del Sur con mayor tasa de inflación alimentaria: un 1,2%. En el lado opuesto se situó Perú, que presentó un decrecimiento de precios de un 2,1%, de acuerdo con este reporte de la FAO. En Colombia el costo de la canasta básica alimentaria mostró un pequeño aumento de 0,1%.

    Por su parte, los datos del Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) de Colombia muestran que, entre agosto de 2017 y 2018, el aumento del Índice de Precios de Consumo (IPC) fue del 3,1%, una subida inferior a la experimentada en el mismo periodo del año anterior.

    _____

    In its last report, from June 2017 with data from April to May, Argentina was the country in South America with the highest rate of food inflation: 1.2%. On the opposite side was Peru, which presented a price decrease of 2.1%, according to this FAO report. In Colombia, the cost of the basic food basket showed a small increase of 0.1%.

    On the other hand, data from the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) of Colombia show that, between August 2017 and 2018, the increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 3.1%, an increase lower than the experienced in the same period of the previous year.

    You know what?  I’ll give AMLO this one.

    López Obrador se queda cinco horas atrapado en un vuelo comercial
    Tras el incidente, el presidente electo reafirmó su postura de que nunca viajar en el lujoso avión presidencial, “me daría pena”, aseguró

    _____

    López Obrador stays trapped for five hours on a commercial flight
    After the incident, the president-elect reaffirmed his position that never travel in the luxurious presidential plane, “I would be sorry,” he said.

    Finally!  Did your team win?  I didn’t bet on mine today and lets just say SAM.BRADFORD.HAPPENS.

    Need a suitable tune for Sunday?  Escuchen.

    Translation services provided by the Alpha Beta Corporation, who totally aren’t in the business of filtering the totality of human knowledge in a manner to suit their political biases.  No sir.

     

  • Ain’t My Bitch

    A question was posed, that got a lot of response:

    At which point it became apparent that nobody liked my suggestion.

    Later that week, it became apparent that nobody likes my music.  Sad.

    Surely, there must be somebody else around here with some level of discerning taste.

    *raises glass to Certified Public Asshat*

    Today is my review of beer that I picked because it got a song stuck in my head at the time of purchase.  I will post links, but given my audience, you have my word as a Spaniard that none of them will be Metallica.**

    First up, is this Belgian Style Ale from Victory Brewery.  I should be H/T somebody here, but to be honest I forgot who it was.  Here is the song.

    This is not half bad, and while I generally do like the Saison and/or Farmhouse style this one is a tad on the bitter side.  I think Boulevard does it better with their Tank #7.  Victory Golden Monkey Ale:  3.5/5

    Up next is Wells’s Banana Bread Ale (H/T: Riven)  I regret this one.  It is expertly brewed, but I believe I made my feelings for bananas clear in a previous review.  For this one, there can really only be one thing running in my head.  In the event you actually clicked that, and wish to murder me, consider that I only played you a clip.  Wells Banana Bread Ale:  2.0/5

     

    Left Coast Brewery VooDoo American Stout. This is a bit heavier than the run of the mill milk stout.  It has more coffee notes so think of this as more of the type like Guinness Extra Stout.   The song of course is something that also manages to be both heavy and mellow.  I played it as loud as the terrible speakers in my car could play.  Left Coast Brewery VooDoo American Stout:  3.8/5.

     

    Finally, this one was pretty blatant about the music choice.  I happened to like Deftones when I was in high school but they kind of fell off the face of the earth until that day I found this.  They were always just a little bit…different.  Anyhow, they picked an IPA and one that is particularly gruesome.  Lot of heavy citrus notes in this one, and as you can tell is very hazy.  A few of you will like the song, somebody here will like the beer, but nobody will like the price tag ($14 for  4-pack).  Belching Beaver Digital Bath IPA:  2.5/5.

     

     

    **Right, I’m no Spaniard, but none of the links were Metallica.  At least give me that.