I think I went 6-7-1 last week, so that sucks. I’m going to put in a little more effort this week to try to improve on that.
If anyone wants to know, I got my odds here, on 10/18.
It’s that time of the week again. Here are this week’s picks:
Denver (-1) at Arizona. I do believe the Broncos can handle the Cardinals, even in Arizona. They haven’t traveled well this year (0-2), but Arizona hasn’t been an intimidating place to play (Cards: 0-3 at home) The top two leaders in tackles for the Cards (who are both in the top 5 in the NFL) are both safeties, suggesting to me that they’re letting a lot of rushes into their backfield (To be fair, their #3 guy is an LB). Their offense is the really weak part of the team, however, as only Buffalo has scored fewer points this year. Denver’s biggest weakness corresponds to Arizona’s. Denver’s rushing defense (27th) hasn’t been very good this year, but Arizona’s rushing game (32nd) has been terrible. Meanwhile, their rushing game against the Cards’ rushing defense shows a pretty big advantage. DEN – give the point.
Note: due to me sending this in late, this will be posted after this game has finished. If I got the pick wrong, you know that’s true.
Tennessee at LA Chargers (-6.5). The Titans are another team with a mediocre offense, one I think the Chargers can deal with. On the other side of the ball, the Titans have a decent defense, although their passing defense is much better than their running defense (26th). This works in favor of the Chargers, particularly Melvin Gordon. Playing in LA, I think the Chargers will be able to get that extra TD to beat the spread. LAC – give the points.
New England (-3) at Chicago. I wish the point spread were larger, it would give me more confidence in saying the Bears may well have a rebound game at home (against the spread, if nothing else). They’ve done well at home, while the Patriots have looked great at Gillette Stadium, and well… not so much anywhere else. The one key weakness I would fear would be Chicago’s average pass defense against Tom Brady and the rest of a team that knows how to make plays when necessary. Usually. CHI – take the points.
Cleveland at Tampa Bay (-3.5). The one area where the Buccaneers have shown real weakness is pass defense, where they are giving up the highest average YPG and over 3 TDs a game. They are quite fortunate, therefore, to be playing the Browns, who are tied for scoring the fewest passing TDs per game behind high round draft pick Baker Mayfield. Cleveland’s running game is one of the strongest in the league, although Tampa has shown they aren’t too bad at stopping the run. I think the biggest question is, can Jameis Winston throw more TDs to his own receivers than “completions” to Denzel Ward? Assuming the answer is yes, I’ll go with the Bucs at home. TB – give the points
Detroit (-3) at Miami. The Dolphins stats don’t seem to support their record (partially due to a large blowout loss in New England). The only statistical advantage I can see for them is Miami’s ground game against the Lions’ rushing defense. And while Miami’s passing defense has given up a lot of yardage, they also have the most interceptions in the league. Additionally, Detroit hasn’t shown they can play on the road this year. MIA – take the points
Carolina at Philadelphia (-4.5). Another game where I think the home/road records come into play. The statistical matchups are fairly even. A lot will come down to how the Eagles’ can (or cannot) hold Cam Newton at bay (or intercept him three times as they did last year). While that’s unlikely, I do think they will be able to turn their home field into a real advantage. PHI – give the points
Buffalo at Indianapolis (-7.5). The Bills have shown a heroic inability to score points, with the one unusual exception being their one win against Minnesota. They recently hired Former Panthers QB Derek Anderson to pump up their anemic passing. I think the most important matchup will be the Colts passing vs Buffalo’s pass defense. While the Bills could keep it close with good defensive play and better offense, I don’t expect their new QB to make that much of a difference. IND – give the points
Cincinnati at Kansas City (-6). The Bengals had a hard time dealing with Pittsburgh’s passing, and they are now facing a similar problem facing the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes. While the Bengals have shown they can play on the road, they’re also now facing one of the best offenses smarting over a close loss. Their best hope is going to come dealing with a mediocre Kansas City defense. KC – give the points
Minnesota (-3) at NY Jets. The Jets are going to have a hard time stopping Kirk Cousins. The other matchups in this game are pretty much of a wash, statistically. They are probably going to get somewhere on the ground, but unless Sam Darnold plays better than he has previously this year, I think the Vikings have a definite advantage. MIN – give the points
Houston at Jacksonville (-4.5) The Jaguars remain the league’s statistical leader on defense, although they appear to be in freefall after two big losses to Dallas and Kansas City. Meanwhile, The Texans appear to be on the rise after starting the season 0-3. I think this is one game where the numbers don’t matter nearly as much as the motivations for the players. The Jaguars will be looking to end their losing ‘streak’ at home, and they do have the talent to do so. JAC – give the points
New Orleans at Baltimore (-2.5). The Saints have the league’s highest scoring offense going up against the league’s stingiest defense in the Ravens. Typically, in this matchup, you pick defense over offense. However, I’m feeling contrarian right now. NO – take the points
LA Rams (-9.5) at San Francisco. I’ve been checking team and individual player stats for a while. For this one, I’m just going to take the Rams. LAR – give the points
NY Giants at Atlanta (-5). The matchups for this one are fairly even. As above, I’m getting lazy, and it’s getting late, so I’m just going to go with the home team. ATL – give the points .
Titans and LAC are playing in London.
And this. What kind of stupidity is this. I can’t believe the NFL STILL thinks they will be able to expand profitably in Europe and Mexico. *sigh*
I miss NFL Europe though, I liked summer football and seeing some of the young guys get some experience and than move up to the real league.
I could see expansion in Mexico. The UK makes no sense with the time difference.
Mexico makes much, much more sense.
“I do believe the Broncos can handle the Cardinals”
Boy were you ever… oh wait nevermind.
Instead of watching fooseball I will be smoking a brisket tomorrow for some sandwiches. Along side, some roasted cauliflower mash and stuffed mushrooms.
Go Steelers!
Mmmmm, I’ll be smoking chicken thighs.
That sounds delicious.
Tomorrow will be a whole roasted chicken, collared greens, red beans and rice. Gonna track down some ham hocks for the beans. Or maybe a smoked turkey wing/leg. Jim Beam with sweet peppermint tea.
That sounds good. Last time I smoked a shoulder I used the bone and some of the pig to make baked beans. it was awesome.
I need to try ham and bean soup with some of it too
Why can’t you watch football and smoke brisket?
A proper brisket needs your full attention. Do you even brisket, bro? Jeesh!
Nope, I’m just a simple city boy.
Not with a pellet grill
Cause I’ll be too busy drinking beer duh! I could do both but the game hasn’t captured my attention the past couple of years.
Seems like a perfect combo to me, up until my bills have sealed the loss and i can shut the tv off.
I have been engaging in kitchen therapy this weekend. I made cookies and fried chicken. Tomorrow I plan to make stew and a cheese ball, and maybe UCS’s pretzel rolls.
NO – take the points
Fuck you very much.
That gentleman behind you, a Mr. Suggs, wishes to have a word with you.
At least NO doesn’t hire murderers.
THAT YOU KNOW OF.
Just rapists like Darren Sharper.
Um, Ted, you’re a Packer fan like I am, so maybe stay mum on the Sharper thing. (I did almost post about Eugene Robinson getting a hooker at the SB a year after he left the Packers, and Sharper being a rapist, and Mark Chumura being a groper and Antonio Freeman getting in a drunk driving accident and switching seats before the cops arrived, but really, that’s all libel, everyone who ever lived in Wisconsin is a Saint, in the purest form, not to do with bounties and all that lowlife shit)
The which NFL team has the worst thugs argument has a simple answer. 32 way tie
I’m with him, but if it helps any this is one of my “risky” picks.
I am confident that the Packers will not have to rely on a field goal to win at home this weekend.
SP may abandon me tomorrow since her team isn’t on.
This bye shit is retarded.
Bye! Just going out for a pack of smokes.
That’s what my dad said!
Wait…
Oh.
Hopefully Rogers takes a nice relaxing bath and rests that knee. Is it too much to ask that Clay Matthews gets a non-football injury and the team can release him?
I was hoping to see Harbaugh have a side-line aneursym when the game was tied up.
Doesnt look so good now.
Will be just that much sweeter when we beat them.
Wine has been poured and the grill fired up.
☺??
Cheers! Have a lovely evening.
Right back at ya!
Honoring your homie Anthony Bourdain?
so many to choose
The stouts sound good,you can keep the rest.
Blueberry, watermelon, pecan, cinnamon, jalapeno… whatever happened to making a nice refreshing (fire brewed) American lager.
They have them too.
Octoberfest menu
Anyone making jalapeno pineapple ale should have to face a jury.
A jury of deliciousness!
And then be hung?
“They said you was hung.”
That…sounds good, actually.
their “usual suspects”
That’s better. I’m all for craft/micro brewing, but there is a difference between beer and an ice cream sundae.
Awesome interview with the Swedish girl who found the old sword in the lake.
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2018/oct/19/experience-pulled-a-1500-year-old-sword-lake-saga-vanecek
Dinner has been eaten and bourbon has been served.
Any other posts I might make tonight should be treated as drunken ramblings.
I just replied to a comment in the dead thread, but amusingly, it applies here:
Bourbon should only be paired with branch, and that rarely.
Preach on.
?
You obviously have never had bourbon peach cobbler.
As opposed to the posts you make at other times of the day? :-p
Posts before 5 pm EST can be treated as inane ramblings.
I rarely drink to a buzz before 5. I’m saving that until I retire.
I’m stuck waiting for a flight home.
Does anyone have the score to the Cal game?
49-7
Thank you. You’re a true friend.
A partial score: 17.
+1 Carlin
3-Love
What’s Cal and how is it played? Board game?
I went to my first corn maze today. It was ok, but quite muddy.
Also, not an euphemism.
Not a corn maize?
“Here is a textbook definition of a beer run. This beer baron swiped 5 cases from a convenience store in the 5000 block of Little School Road and took off. He left in a Gray Dodge truck”
https://twitter.com/ArlingtonPD/status/1052624188178083840
Joe Donnelly is getting pretty desperate there in Indiana. I’m pretty sure the R’s can count another seat in the senate. Sadly, Mike Braun, the R candidate is an idiot.
https://youtu.be/o9H9vKwWT8c The is a better link straight to the campaign video Donnelly released
He looks like a bag of dicks. And his message isn’t much better.
As someone who works at a radio station, I know never to trust news from a radio station. And, as someone who works in local TV, I also know never to trust news from local TV. Don’t Trust Anyone (Take off your clothes)
My local news is so biased it’s almost comical. As is often the case, it’s more what they spend all their time on than it is what they say.
He sounds like a bog-standard Republican. …
He’s a Democrat?
He’s absolutely a democrat and votes that way too (don’t the all), he;’ just talking a big game because he’s likely to lose. His “over my dead body” comment is even more infuriating after his yes vote on Obamacare
He’s a DINO, much like Flake is a RINO. Fuck them both for their duplicitous ways.
I didn’t think there was such a thing as a DINO. I mean, they’re all is such perfect synchronization.
Guy’s like him are trying to butter the bread on both sides without getting their hands greasy. It’s wearisome.
It’s probably because I always live in areas where Dems are free to go as nuts as they want.
Ha!
You made me do it!
Ha!
That “pica” comment was on point.
“President Trump Is Developing a Missile That Would Break a Nuclear Arms Treaty With Russia
Buried inside the mammoth $700 billion defense bill President Donald Trump signed last month is a relatively miniscule $25 million to fund development of a new road-mobile, ground-launched cruise missile. The program could be easily overlooked amid the Christmas list of military hardware the administration is buying, except for one thing: the missile is prohibited by a 30-year-old Cold War arms control agreement with Russia.
The research and development on the medium-range missile is intended to serve as a direct response to Russia’s deployment in recent years of its own treaty-busting missile. U.S. intelligence first recognized Moscow’s potential violation of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty when the Russian missile was still in test phase. The Obama administration worked unsuccessfully to persuade the Kremlin to stand down the program. Now the Trump administration has decided to respond with a missile of its own.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/19/us/politics/russia-nuclear-arms-treaty-trump-administration.html
That’s odd – I have it on good authority that Drumph is totally in Putin’s pocket and all of his policies are just geared towards kissing Russia’s ass.
Comrade…er President Trump is most patriotic. Da. He hate Putin, comrade. Story must be told, for American Pig Dogs to believe, yes.
About that….
” Mueller report PSA: Prepare for disappointment
And be forewarned that the special counsel’s findings may never be made public.
President Donald Trump’s critics have spent the past 17 months anticipating what some expect will be among the most thrilling events of their lives: special counsel Robert Mueller’s final report on Russian 2016 election interference.
They may be in for a disappointment.
That’s the word POLITICO got from defense lawyers working on the Russia probe and more than 15 former government officials with investigation experience spanning Watergate to the 2016 election case. The public, they say, shouldn’t expect a comprehensive and presidency-wrecking account of Kremlin meddling and alleged obstruction of justice by Trump — not to mention an explanation of the myriad subplots that have bedeviled lawmakers, journalists and amateur Mueller sleuths.
Perhaps most unsatisfying: Mueller’s findings may never even see the light of day.”
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/19/mueller-investigation-findings-914754
“Politico Report Says Russiagaters Should Prepare To Kiss My Ass
In a new article titled “Mueller report PSA: Prepare for disappointment”, Politico cites information provided by defense attorneys and “more than 15 former government officials with investigation experience spanning Watergate to the 2016 election case” to warn everyone who’s been lighting candles at their Saint Mueller altars that their hopes of Trump being removed from office are about to be dashed to the floor.
“While [Mueller is] under no deadline to complete his work, several sources tracking the investigation say the special counsel and his team appear eager to wrap up,” Politico reports.
“The public, they say, shouldn’t expect a comprehensive and presidency-wrecking account of Kremlin meddling and alleged obstruction of justice by Trump — not to mention an explanation of the myriad subplots that have bedeviled lawmakers, journalists and amateur Mueller sleuths,” the report also says, adding that details of the investigation may never even see the light of day.”
https://medium.com/@caityjohnstone/politico-report-says-russiagaters-should-prepare-to-kiss-my-ass-3188376c63d7
So, what you’re saying is marching orders have been sent. because those read exactly the same.Just remember, if you steer me wrong, I have a place for you, sliced up and in my deep fryer, where all good potatos belong.
I’m actually vodka. So I live on as spirit.
“U.S. to Tell Russia It Is Leaving Landmark I.N.F. Treaty
The Trump administration is preparing to tell Russian leaders next week that it is planning to exit the landmark Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, in part to enable the United States to counter a Chinese arms buildup in the Pacific, according to American officials and foreign diplomats.
President Trump has been moving toward scrapping the three-decade-old treaty, which grew out of President Ronald Reagan’s historic meeting with Mikhail Gorbachev in 1986. While the treaty was seen as effective for years, Russia has been violating it at least since 2014 in an effort to menace other nations.
But the pact has also constrained the United States from deploying new weapons to respond to China’s efforts to cement a dominant position in the Western Pacific and to keep American naval forces at bay. Because China was not a signatory to the treaty, it has faced no limits on developing intermediate-range nuclear missiles, which can travel thousands of miles.
For the past four years, the United States has argued that Russia is in violation of the treaty because it has deployed prohibited tactical nuclear weapons to intimidate European nations and former Soviet states that have aligned with the West. But President Barack Obama chose not to leave the agreement because of objections from the Europeans — particularly Germany — and out of concern that it would rekindle an arms race.
Mr. Trump appears not to share such hesitation. His national security adviser, John R. Bolton, will warn the Russian president, Vladimir V. Putin, on a trip to Moscow early next week that the United States plans to leave the treaty, the American officials said.
Mr. Bolton declined to comment on his forthcoming trip. But a senior administration official issued a statement saying that “Russia continues to produce and field prohibited cruise missiles and has ignored calls for transparency.”
Defense Secretary Jim Mattis has publicly brought the subject up several times in recent weeks, saying that Russia’s violations were “untenable” and signaling that the administration was reviewing its options. The preparations to leave the treaty were described by foreign diplomats who have been briefed on the matter and by American officials with knowledge of the plans.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/19/us/politics/russia-nuclear-arms-treaty-trump-administration.html
“Trump says US will withdraw from nuclear arms treaty with Russia
Donald Trump has confirmed the US will leave an arms control treaty with Russia dating from the cold war that has kept nuclear missiles out of Europe for three decades.
Trump says he’d prefer to choose woman as US ambassador to UN
Read more
“We’ll have to develop those weapons,” the president told reporters in Nevada after a rally. “We’re going to terminate the agreement and we’re going to pull out.””
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/20/trump-us-nuclear-arms-treaty-russia
“Trump says he’d prefer to choose woman as US ambassador to UN
Read more”
Uh, just pretend I didn’t paste that part or whatever.
Read more what? Enquireing minds and all that.
I think the answer is Harry Potter slash fiction, that feels like Trump’s bag.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uwfdFCP3KYM
Yeah, in retrospect those old men writing a sketch about fucking an underage girl with what was probably an underage Lindsey Lohan, so Brave, so Powerful!
Lindsay Lohan used to be a sweet piece, but nowadays… Man.
Drugs are a hell of a drug.
“Do you want to know more?’
“This is why John Bolton shouldn’t be allowed anywhere near US foreign policy. This would undo decades of bipartisan arms control dating from Reagan. We shouldn’t do it. We should seek to fix any problems with this treaty and move forward.”
https://twitter.com/RandPaul/status/1053638837283491843
I’m with you on Bucs and Saints, but I’m going with the Panthers to win outright. I don’t know why, but I’ve just got a feeling that the Panthers are better than they played against DC and the Eagles aren’t firing on all cylinders. Speaking of DC, I’m taking the ‘Skins to win at home against Dallas. No good reason, I just have a good feeling about that game.
“I’ve drafted, but haven’t yet introduced, a bill to remove the marijuana question from ATF form 4473 — the question that requires anyone who uses marijuana (crime) to lie (crime) in order to purchase a gun (crime) from a gun dealer. Any Democrats who would support such a bill?”
https://twitter.com/RepThomasMassie/status/1053765170974081025
No, because they don’t want to make it easier to exercise one’s right to bear arms.
Pot became legal here the other day and we’re hip-deep in corpses.
Whenever a “progressive” wants to talk about gun policy, I like to corner them by asking why they support policies that have such a disparate impact on minorities. They say that voter ID is tantamount to eliminating black suffrage, so why do they want an African-American to show ID AND go through a background check just to exercise his 2A rights? Then I bring up the gun control restrictions on freed slaves back in the 1800s.
It tends to make them pretty uncomfortable.