I went 9-5 last week, for a nice change from mediocracy.
If anyone wants to know, I got my odds here, on 10/31.
Here are this week’s picks:
Oakland (+120) at San Francisco (-3 / -140). Two teams with bad records who both have a few close losses. The 49ers injury situation looks worse than the Raiders, however. OAK – take the points.
Detroit (+185) at Minnesota (-5 / -220). Two tricky teams to pick. Minnesota seems slightly better, and they’re at home (even if that’s meant jack & shit this year to either team). MIN – give the points.
Kansas City (-9 / -450) at Cleveland (+350). An improved Browns team has the ability to hold the Chiefs under that point spread, but then I also thought that last week against the Steelers, who were able to take advantage of some holes in Cleveland’s defense. The Browns had 2 interceptions against Tampa Bay, and still lost. And I don’t think Mahomes is going to throw 2 interceptions.
Pittsburgh (+130) at Baltimore (-3 / -150). This is a tough one. One key to the game will be how well the Ravens tough pass defense matches up against Roethlisberger and the Steelers pass offense & vice versa. Pittsburgh has shown themselves to be a good road team this year, but I think Baltimore has enough to pull out a 3-point win. BAL – give the points.
Tampa Bay (+250) at Carolina (-6.5 / -300). With either Fitzpatrick (who has historic interception problems of his own) or Winston, the Buccaneers have a definite QB disadvantage to Newton and the Panthers. With the spread under a TD, I’d go with Carolina. CAR – give the points.
NY Jets (+140) at Miami (-3 / -160). Another tough one. Miami has a record that their stats don’t seem to support. I’m guessing that a lot of that is due to turnovers, and they will be key if the Dolphins want to win. So at home, against a mediocre team. MIA – give the points.
Atlanta (+105) at Washington (-1.5 / -125). The Redskins are the better team, and the spread is basically a pick ‘em game. I wouldn’t bet the house, but I also wouldn’t have a problem putting three figures down on this one. WAS – give the points.
Chicago (-10 / -500) at Buffalo (+400). Chicago has shown a talent for throwing away games this year, but the Bills terrible offense and their resultantly overstretched defense gives the Bears a good chance to meet that large point spread. CHI – give the points.
Houston (± 100) at Denver (-1 / -120). Houston has reeled off a string of 5 straight wins, but they are mostly against teams ranging from mediocre to bad. While the Broncos fit in the top end of that description, they are also a team with a definite home advantage. (Their two home losses this year were against KC & the LA Rams). I think Denver has a decent chance of stopping the Texans’ streak. DEN – give the point.
LA Chargers (+105) at Seattle (-1.5 / -125). Tough one. The Chargers have a good team this year, and Seattle has had some close calls against some weak teams. LAC – take the points.
LA Rams (+105) at New Orleans (-1.5 / -125). Another hard to call game. I’d like to take the Saints at home, and they’re certainly capable of it, but their weaker defense makes me think the Rams do have an advantage. LAR – take the points.
Green Bay (+200) at New England (-6 / -240). The Packers are not the Bills, so that point spread strikes me as a bit high. GB – take the points.
Tennessee (+230) at Dallas (-6 / -270). If the Cowboys can get its’ offense going, I doubt the Titans will be able to keep up. (Tennessee is just above Buffalo in points scored). I think a 6-point spread is about right. DAL – give the points.
Comments
59 responses to “BakedPenguin’s NFL Pick-’em for Week 9”
I never understood any of this
The spread (number under 100) is the point difference – what the favorite should win by, or more. A bet on the 49ers would need them to win by 4 for the bet to win. The 100+ figures are odds for a straight win. So to win $100, someone would have to bet $140.
OK, that makes sense,
Oh, and you probably already figured this out, but anyone betting on the Oakland +120 moneyline who was right would win $120 from a $100 bet.
Looking forward to your scale model of a Vegas Casino. I won’t be holding my breath, though.
Note: not meant to Yusef at all derogatorily; I ‘ve read his writeups, and been impressed with his model work. Even if he wanted to do a model of a casino, I don’t expect he could do it for a while
I see nothing about the cheerleaders. What about the cheerleaders?
CHEERLEADER LIVES MATTER!
I was going to make a “spread” joke
Ah, what hell. Post related semi-Q link.
….like a screen door in a hurricane…
the back door gets banged a lot ?
https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSUBq3L46iK7LeogS4-ufc41zfQCyVQW0Z9Iu-iPvIZ5ZMaUVs
She’s a cheerleader chick.
Yeah, I went with the 80% on that request, especially since it corresponds with my preferences. You’d be better able to choose male CLs that you’d like to see, anyhow. I’d just pick the first I happened upon.
Sigh.
Sorry, I thought you were Rhywun renamed.
Yeah, all I changed was my name. But I immediately thought of that song.
Dude at 2:32…Dave. Used to work with him. He was a pilot at a skydiving center.
The same one at 3:20?
Yes.
You mean Rick Perry?
Danke!
Another downside to the Cleveland Browns. No cheerleaders.
“I see nothing about the cheerleaders. What about the cheerleaders?”
Since the NFL got woke, they’ve replaced all the hot chicks in skimpy outfits, with bull dykes dressed like dudes. Because equality.
reposting . . . kinda on topic now
Don’s Most Over-rated (Committee-stye!)
1 Syracuse
2 Virginia
3 UCF
4 Kentucky
5 Washington State
5 Boston College
7 NC State
8 Notre Dame
9 Iowa State
10 LSU
11 Florida
12 Texas
12 WVa
Machado stock is down
yay: baseball guys starting to give attitude like it’s the NFL or NBA 🙁
Good, fuck that guy.
Or any soccer league in Europe.
Touchdown!
It’s like someone crossed HM and tres cool.
Needs moar ass-eating
I don’t know what that was, but yummy.
I think Baltimore has enough to pull out a 3-point win.
Bless you. Last Sunday was fucking depressing.
Yeah, they have to be a frustrating team for fans this year. Sometimes they look like the dominating Ravens of old, sometimes like Buffalo’s slightly more competent older brother
Just playing to the quality of their fan base.
So all-pro, then.
Fail.
Ty Montgomery to the rescue!
They’ve got Ty Montgomeryt. Ain’t nothing stopping them now!
In case you needed another reason to vote anything but Democrat:
Wrong on, well, everything.
On the plus side, it will never happen, even if Dems take the Senate. Even the worst case scenarios amid the fever dreams of the Democrats will not give them veto proof majorities.
I keep saying this, but I believe Democrats are better off if they do not re-take the house, and the Senate is not going to happen even in the wildest dreams of their prognosticators. If they get the house, they will not be able to get anything done, but will make complete asses of themselves for the next 2 years, under the spotlight. The result of that will probably be an across the board wipeout by landslide in 2020. They’re much better off not getting any more publicity.
I think that’s a given – they will grab the spotlight either way.
Yeah, if they take the house they’ll overplay their hand and look like lunatics in the process.
What, I’m not the only one who thinks wasting 2 years trying to impeach Trump and Kavanaugh will turn out badly for them?
It will be the gift that keeps on giving.
It’s unreal that anyone would want to vote for them with what they are promising. Higher taxes, economy killing non-sense. What else? Oh yeah, more economy killing non-sense. Except that I occasionally talk to voters without really getting into the details. A lot of voters, is it a majority?, know absolutely nothing about the issues. I knew several people who voted for Hillary, solely for one reason, she’s a woman and they wanted a ‘first woman president’. Others, many you know, vote for a party. They don’t know anything about the party or the issues, but hey, they’ve always voted that way and so did their parents and their grandparents. Or there’s just the pressure to do what the other cool kids do.
Then you notice that you have all these celebrities who obviously believe Democrats are still liberals. It’s quite comical, the Democrats have not been liberals for a long time, and now they talk and behave exactly like commies and no one even notices.
Their base is a combination of poor people who don’t pay income taxes, rich people who don’t care about tax increases, and union goons who have the power to raise their own salaries every few years. Anyone not in one of those categories would be absolutely nuts to vote for them.
You forgot retards. Plenty of stupid people will, essentially, vote for higher taxes for themselves, then complain about the taxes. “I meant tax _other_ people”.
Asked the good looking 20 something girl at the store if she did anything for Halloween, ended up talking about Godzilla movies. *swoon*
Did you ask her out?
/Mom
Hate to break it to you, but that was really Straffin in drag.
I fell for the girl who played assistant for the woman who talked BIM applications with class today. We kept making eye contact, I couldn’t stop looking. Nearly worked up the nerve to chat, then faked a phone call and left the room. Probably for the best, I’d have to pretend to have a life.
New Glibs motto?
https://i.pinimg.com/originals/50/0e/ba/500eba494ebd13ae44af85a36cb27ebb.jpg
Apparently “English” isn’t one of the six languages.
I think I dated her.
…but I also wouldn’t have a problem putting three figures down on this one.
You mean you’re willing to risk up to $9.99?
No, I meant the three small doll figurines of little girls I have…
Ah, Halloween is already over. I’d put $100 on the Redskins
Based off of what I have seen from the Raiders in the first 15 minutes of the game, any Glib could play defense for them.
Yeah, I didn’t think Mullens would perform like this. Or that Oakland ‘s D would be essentially absent.